(05-03-2021 03:54 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(05-03-2021 03:21 PM)Stammers Wrote:  

(05-03-2021 02:00 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(05-03-2021 01:53 PM)Stammers Wrote:  

(05-03-2021 12:59 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  The first three were JUCO's.

The discussion is frosh bigs. Jamal was a top 85 recruit and played a bit above what most #85's would do. He didn't knock it out of the park, but scored more than what would generally be expected.

Then of course the reason--the team sucked and he was allowed to play a bunch.

If you are referring to Craig Randall--he averaged 2.2 as a frosh.

As for Dozier, AA, and Dorsey they were all about where they should have been as frosh based on rankings and placement. Joey is hard to nail down since he was 21 y/o as a frosh and had various rankings and names.

CDR overperformed at #75, probably would be expected to be a 5 and 3 guy in the fat part of the curve.

Chris Crawford also got more play, partially due to the fact there wasn't a lot of depth. There were no returning guards, so his PT was wide open. And that team finished 4th in CUSA and barely made the tournament.

Your Chris Crawford example makes my point. It has to do with the makeup of the roster and playing time, not ranking. If Dandridge isn't healthy, Sam isn't going to get mop up minutes and average 3 and 3. He will play more and his numbers will be a lot closer to Cisse's.

Quote:Jamal was a top 85 recruit and played a bit above what most #85's would do.

Quote:CDR overperformed at #75

46 Anderson
58 CDR
162 Johnson

Quote:The first three were JUCO's.

Replace Randall with Thornton...

High School/Juco Ranking
173 Johnson
153 Davenport
233 Brewton
342 Parks
342 Thornton

Also not relevant, because they were the same ages.

First Year...
22 Dorsey
20 Anderson
20 Dozier

21 Brewton
21 Davenport
20 Parks
20 Johnson

Quote:As for Dozier, AA, and Dorsey they were all about where they should have been as frosh based on rankings and placement.

And yet Thornton and Parks scored more than them ranked almost 300 spots lower than Anderson and CDR. Davenport and Johnson were 100 spots lower.

You can't just plug in the numbers according to rankings. It worked quite well because our teams were very similar from 2009-2015. Minot is #38. If Boogie or Warren were here as planned, there is no way he averages double digits. Now he might.

You're comparing JUCO's to frosh, ffs.

Jesus.

The discussion is about bigs.

Freshman bigs.

Sam. Is a big. He will be a frosh.

It is weird that you are all of a sudden moving the goal posts all over the place. Before now, you had a formula for every high schooler, juco and transfer, regardless of position. Just plug in the data and it spits out expected production at the D1 level. You boast about being correct in virtually every thread that you participate in. I'm not being facetious and I'm not saying that you are totally wrong. All I'm saying is that based on the makeup of the roster, your one size fits all formula doesn't work.

So if I understand your argument as you are presenting it, merely being a Juco explains why Mike Parks, Raynere Thornton, and Will Coleman, performed at the same level as Tarik Black, Robert Dozier, and Joey Dorsey, even though they were 100-300 spots below them in the rankings, correct? It has nothing to do with the makeup of the roster?

How is it different from other positions?

You're not understanding anything correctly. This discussion was about Sam who is a big and my predictions for how he would fare versus other Memphis bigs in the past 10 years. You brought in all sorts of other players including guards and Ju CO players who are not freshman. I don't know why this is hard to understand but comparing Ju CO stats from Mike parks to freshman stats of Robert Dozier makes no sense at all. If anything compare their junior stats to the 1st year Ju CO stats and get back with me.

Furthermore it absolutely does make sense as to the composition of the roster. So when you are pushing Jamal Johnson stats compared to CDR's it was easy to point out that Jamal played for a crapy team.

This team will be expected to go to the ncaa tourney and that is why a 100+ recruit probably won't get much playing time for this team. If he played for a sorry team that didn't have any bigs worthwhile than he might get more playing time. It still doesn't mean he is any good or worse then what he would be already, it just means you'd be getting more playing time and padding numbers for a bad team.

Which circles back to the Tyler Harris issue. He got 25 minutes as a freshman for a less than an NIT
level team. This year he'll be playing for a team that is expected to go to the NCAAt and obviously won't be getting as much playing time. In fact he's a walk on.

So if I say Tyler will be playing 25 mpg this year, it probably means the team has imploded.

This isn't rocket science.

It is rocket science to you, because you are arguing against yourself.

Quote:You brought in all sorts of other players including guards and Ju CO players who are not freshman. I don't know why this is hard to understand but comparing Ju CO stats from Mike parks to freshman stats of Robert Dozier makes no sense at all.

You are saying that it makes sense that a Juco player ranked #352 in his class should score more than a freshman high schooler ranked #62 in his class? Nothing makes less sense.

Sam isn't competing for playing time against Austin, Shaq, Taggart, Coleman, Massie, Dozier, Black or Cisse. He is competing for time against Dandridge, who still isn't healthy, and Williams; who will play most of his minutes at the 4.

Quote:So if I say Tyler will be playing 25 mpg this year, it probably means the team has imploded.

Yes, my exact point. Sam's only real competition at the 5 is Dandridge. If Sam only plays 3 minutes per game, it means that Dandridge is healthy and playing very well, or Sam is really bad. Otherwise, he will play 10 minutes.

The makeup of the roster is just as important as the skill level of the player. I have proven that beyond a doubt with the comparison between 2006 and 2018. You are arguing against yourself.