My guess would be the NCHC. I agree, I don't know what ASU does for the Big Ten. I could also see the rest of the NCHC not feeling the need to listen to the program that has finished last three years in a row and hasn't finished higher than second to last since 2015-16.

Regarding a new conference, I think with the uncertainty around the moratorium's end date and a lack of agreement among the possible schools around scholarship limits, that is also unlikely.