(05-06-2021 11:47 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(05-06-2021 02:05 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(05-06-2021 12:10 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  The Athletic sent out a survey regarding CFP expansion. It’s behind a paywall, but a great read by Andy Staples if you have a subscription. 82% of the respondents (half of whom identify as B10 and SEC fans) favor expansion.

https://t.co/xFVX7wh7Tz?amp=1

The Athletic's survey respondents, naturally, are overly weighted toward diehard fans as opposed to more casual viewers. About 40 percent of the respondents said they watch 10 or more bowl games per year. But the audience size of the CFP semis and final is about 10 times the size of the median bowl game audience.

For an expanded playoff to make sense for ESPN, every game needs to reach the people who only watch the current "New Year's Six" and no other bowl games, because whether those people watch is the difference between the first round of an 8 or 12 team playoff having 5 million viewers, or having 15 million viewers.

ESPN can get 5 or 6 million viewers any year from a good-but-not-great bowl game like the Washington State vs. Iowa State Alamo Bowl (5.5 million viewers in Dec. 2018). ESPN pays far less for that game than they do for each playoff game, thus they won't pay the CFP big money for first-round playoff games that only draw as many viewers as an Alamo Bowl.

So ESPN is going to want to look hard at whether casual viewers will flock to the early rounds of a larger playoff, because if ESPN isn't convinced that every game of an expanded playoff will draw almost as many viewers as the current semifinals, then the money won't be there for an expanded playoff.

I would say this line of your post answers ESPN's question. The fact the playoff bowls all have direct national championship implications is obviously why they have 10 times the audience of the fairly middling meaningless bowl. If ESPN wants more playoff bowl level audiences---then ESPN will have to air more playoff level games. I think the audience will not only be there---I think you might find the audience is even bigger once you have more areas of the country involved. For instance---for G5 fans---this would for the first time they are actually part of a playoff system (assuming the 5-1-2)--thus making those G5 fans far more invested in the eventual outcome than they are right now. Even at the P5 level---I suspect fans of the 2 (or 3 in some years) P5 conferences that are left out may be less inclined to consider the playoff must see tv. I think expansion could very well actually increase the average viewership of the playoff games.

You are always very optimistic about this. Obviously if ESPN shares that optimism they'll pony up, and if they don't they won't. Again, it's not about diehard fans, whatever school they support, it's about casuals who care far less about the sport than you or me. Those are the viewers who make a difference between each possible first round game being worth $100 million to ESPN or only $10 million.