(04-26-2021 06:11 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  

(04-24-2021 10:01 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  But the reason that's true for the NFL or MLB or whatever is that the public views all the teams as basically equals. I mean sure, some teams have more glamor than others - the Lakers and Celtics in hoops, the Cowboys and Packers and Steelers in the NFL, for example - but basically all the teams are regarded as pretty much equal. And that's because structurally, they are. So NFL fans are by definition interested in all 32 teams. Sure, a Packers vs Cowboys playoff game will draw more than the Chargers vs the Dolphins, but not by *that* much.

But IMO, college football is different. CFB only draws big money national interest for about 20 or so teams. Below that, interest, and ratings drop off dramatically. That's why an LSU vs Alabama game might draw 10 million viewers but a San Jose State vs Akron game might only draw 300,000, more than 30x fewer viewers. You don't get anything like that ratings spread in the pros. And even among big names, national interest can fall sharply if the teams aren't really good. An 11-0 Penn State will draw a huge audience. A 8-3 Penn State, significantly less.

So I don't think going to 8 will result in the big splurge of new money that going to 4 did. Four is still very exclusive, your still going to get big name vs big name in those games and they will all have stellar records. But once you go to 8, and especially if you start including G5 autobids and the like, the diminishing returns will kick in dramatically. Now you're talking lesser names and teams with maybe 2-3 losses. National interest in college football falls steeply then.

The upshot: I think those who think 8 team playoff, those four quarterfinals, will be a huge increase money bonanza like the BCS was and then the CFP was are in for a rude awakening. It wouldn't surprise me if the money doesn't go up much at all, because basically you'll just be taking what is now an NY6 game but calling it a playoff game. I'm not sure the ratings go up much for that.

But maybe we shall see.

I agree that the NFL is highly competitive and NFL games are hard to win. I am going to be interested in watching how well Urban Meyer deals with losing, because he may be doing a lot of it in Jacksonville in his first season. The draft and the salary cap keep things competitive in the NFL.

In college football, the top teams dominate football recruiting. The top five in 2021 are Alabama, Ohio State, LSU, Georgia, and Clemson, according to 247sports rankings. The top five looks a lot like the usual participants in the current playoff format. The second five (6 through 10) are Oregon, Texas A&M, USC, Notre Dame, and Michigan. The third five (11 through 15) are OU, Miami, Florida, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. The highest ranked G5 school is Cincinnati at 42.

In an eight team playoff, seven of the teams are going to be interesting to the general public and based on recruiting, they should be competitive. The G5 is going to be a problem, unless something changes with those schools. In the last ten years, Cincinnati has had 12 players drafted into the NFL. Alabama has had 85 players drafted in that time period. A Cincinnati vs Alabama first round matchup might get out of hand. The committee may have to set up some minimum standard for a G5 school, based on ranking or whatever.

But maybe with eight playoff schools, some kids will feel like they don't just have to go to Alabama or Clemson or Ohio State or LSU or Georgia to be on the big stage. Having some different schools in the playoffs would add interest, which is why I support an increase to eight, besides the increase in revenue.