(04-08-2021 11:13 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(04-08-2021 10:52 AM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(04-07-2021 09:37 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  Frankly, I've been pretty damn good at forecasting performances of players over the past few years. Lord knows my JUCO to Memphis have been pretty spot on. And I would see Hampton as slightly better than one of the better JUCO teams.

Also, again, it's important to recognize Hampton essentially only played round Robin in the Big South and went against one of the worst OOC (albeit just 5 games) slates in D1.

You are certainly the self-proclaimed king of recruit predictions. And you were probably closer than most on the jucos of the Tubby era. I'm terrible at it - but I recognize the challenges and that a "50% of their prior year stats" rule leads to wide variation.

IIRC you were not exactly spot-on. Seems you hit with the lowball on Rivers, Brewton, and Thornton. But you missed on Davenport and Parks, who over-performed your predictions.

It's not exact science. All these guys have ability. And it's impossible to predict their work ethic, desire, and heart until we get to know them.

I was pretty damn close overall. I was also the person getting laughed at for saying Damien Wilson would be a 3 and 2 guy and that Shaq would be 6 and 4. I hit Clergeot and Nick Marshall's numbers when people were expecting them to be key players.

It's not really rocket science...it's mostly historical comparisons. BUT...people try to use hope and fandom over precedent.

If folks take the time to look at low major transfers to good D1 programs, they will see the vast majority hit 30-50% of what they did at the low school. You then secondly look at the quality of the low major school and the quality of the high major program to see which side of that number is more likely.

If you have an xfer coming from a NIT team or first four going to a Tulsa or Wake Forest, chances are that person will be more of the 50% or maybe higher, while someone leaving William and Mary or Charleston Southern to UNC will be closer to the 30% range.

Obviously, too, if you have a sit out redshirt guy, that has to be taken into account for comparison purposes.

Here are "impact transfers" from 2019.

https://www.si.com/college/2019/10/25/un...-transfers

10) TJ Holyfield (SFA-TTech): 12.9 ppg, 41% 3pt ------> 8.7 ppg 24% 3pt
9) Anthony Mathis (NMSU-Oregon) 14 ppg, 42% 3pt----> 8 pgg 42%
8) Justin Pierce (Wm&Mary-UNC) 15/9/4----> 6/5/1
7) Lamarr Kimble (st. Joe-Louise) 16/4/3----->5/1/3
6) Shakur Juiston (UNLV-Oregon) 11 ppg 9 rebs ------> 8 ppg 7 rpg
5) Nate Sestina (Bucknell-Uky) 16 ppg 9 rebs----> 7 ppg 5 rebs (0.9 3pt made per game)
4) Christian Keeling (Char So.-UNC) 19/7/3----> 4/3/1
3) Chris Clarke (Va Tech-TTech) 8/6/3---6/8/6
2) Admon Gilder (TA&M-Zags) 13/4/3--->11/4/2
1) Blackshear (Va Tech-UF) 15 and 8 ---> 15 and 9

The low major guys had pretty big dropoffs.

Same for this list:

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket...20-2020-21

Proctor went from 19.5 to 9 at a Purdue team that was just .500.

Feagin, Cumberland, Irvine, Hazzard, Yuboah, and Andree also saw huge declines in productivity. All more than 50%.

Quote:Proctor went from 19.5 to 9 at a Purdue team that was just .500.

Proctor went from 22.5 points per 40 minutes to 14.1 points per 40 minutes, so that is a horrible example. If Warren maintains the same production it doesn't matter if he plays 10, 15, 20 minutes or more, he will for sure be a productive part of our team.

Nobody was expecting Wilson to be a game breaker. Shaq and Wilson transferred from mid major D1 programs, so the comparison isn't relevant.

For some reason you left out the Baylor guys. I guess they didn't fit the narrative.