(02-02-2021 10:36 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(02-02-2021 06:32 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  

(02-02-2021 05:40 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(02-02-2021 05:11 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  

(02-02-2021 01:18 PM)k2tigers Wrote:  Wichita St. is a factor too - need to beat them on the road

Beat Wichita State on the road by 15+ and we will move close to 10 spots in the Net. Net really rewards road games...I assume they have a multiplier for Road wins and Home Losses.

Home game blowouts help...

Road game wins above projected expectations will cause large moves for the Net.

Now KenPom is what it is...Unless you win by 50.

Scoring margin was removed from the NET this year. Now it's just efficiency and (basically) SOS. And as you said, the value of road games seems to have a multiplier.

efficiency is Scoring Margin adjusted for pace...It was duplicated before when they had both.

If you beat a team 120 to 80 in 100 possessions your offensive efficiency 1.2 and defensive is .8

If you beat a team 70 to 40 in 50 possessions your offensive efficiency is 1.4 and defensive efficiency is .8.

They are essentially looking at your offensive efficiency vs. your defensive efficiency.

So yeah...Blowouts really help your efficiency.

I hear you, though it's not quite that clean. Possessions in some algorithms - like KenPom - get adjusted for the opponent. So it's not strictly a differential between O and D efficiency. And, as you stated earlier, we are not exactly sure what the NET is doing because it's still new and they haven't shared the algorithm. We do know that they have some road game factor built-in, so there's that variable as well.

They said they removed margin as a variable this year. I get that your efficiency tends to improve in blowouts. However, if we're "efficient" and we beat Houston by 2 pts, it can mean more than beating Tulane by 20 pts - at least in KenPoms rankings - due to the opponent adjustment.

Keep covering the spread and that should be an indicator of improving efficiency.

Agreed...

That is my entire point of saying we need to win by large amounts against bad teams in order to offset the SOS hit we will get.

On another note if they have a SOS metric I doubt they also factor it into their efficiency numbers...But who knows since they refuse to publish the formula which makes no sense.