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ESPN's return on investment from broadcasting AAC vs. P5 (e.g., Big 12) football.
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slhNavy91 Offline
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Post: #4
RE: ESPN's return on investment from broadcasting AAC vs. P5 (e.g., Big 12) football.
It's pretty straightforward to relate primary media rights deals to viewership. Talking dollars per viewer, there's a relatively constrained band of values for the 10 FBS conferences, their football viewership, and their primary media rights deals.

It is important to be consistent with what you are talking about.
DON'T confuse total conference distributions with primary media rights deal dollars. The former includes basketball tourney dollars, money from Big Ten Network/ACC Network/SEC Network, CFP money which is significant for the contract-bowl-conferences (I'm using "significant" in the data sense not just the descriptive sense), merchandising/sponsorship, and more.
DO use the right viewership numbers: conference controlled inventory.

Let's start with the latter. You grabbed the right numbers, the conference-controlled inventory, but you used the wrong term. Conference-controlled inventory includes more than just the intra-conference games. Even in this shortened year the AAC's conference-controlled games included BYU at Navy, BYU at Houston, Army at Cincinnati and even Arkansas State at Memphis got over a million viewers. All of those are in the rights the AAC sold to ABC/ESPN.
(That reminds me, you still haven't corrected yourself making this error in the other thread: https://csnbbs.com/thread-913423-post-17...id17182068 )

For the media rights dollars, even a lot of sports reporters will mix apples and oranges and compare one conference's total revenue or total distributions to member institutions to another conference's media rights deal. You pulled the AAC and BigXII.
AAC's average annual value ...
(oh, another digression - I like to ignore the message board stuffed shirts who say "Well, actually, these things all have year by year escalators, so THIS year it's only..." They don't know that for a fact how it's structured; even IF it is structured to evolve from year to year they don't actually have any knowledge of the SPECIFICS; and ultimately that's not that important to the debate. I use aav, but try to always say so upfront to pre-empt this move)
AAC's average annual value of the 12 year $1B contract comes out to $83.3 million. I don't know why you're using 80. We don't know what IF ANY adjustment was made after UConn's departure, so putting in a guess just adds uncertainty to your analysis. These things have enough uncertainty already.
The Big XII MEDIA revenue is actually around $225 million of your cited $380 million (another typo correction - not/not per school, that's the conference total per year). 13 year deal in 2012 was reportedly $200 million and the addition then reshuffling of the CCG reportedly added about $25 Million more per year as of April 2019.

I ran 2019's conference-controlled viewers against what I could find of reported primary media rights contracts. Sometimes that meant working backwards from a known or conventional wisdom per school number, but most times could find media reports. Those went as far back as 2014 deals, but also included the then-newly-reported $300 million per year from ESPN to SEC.
In alphabetical order:
Dollars per viewer (primary media rights deal, conf controlled FOOTBALL viewers)
AAC $2.91
ACC $2.53
B10 $2.52
B12 $2.56
CUSA $33.53
MAC $3.94
mwc $5.18
P12 $3.40
SEC $1.52
SBC $1.75
Note 1 - throw out CUSA - their low-exposure contracts net SO few rated network games that it is very close to dividing by zero.
Note 2 - the PAC12...remember when everyone thought that Larry Scott was a genius? That's why.
Note 3 - before we get too froggy in the AAC ranks, that is among the most recently done deals...so likely to get passed by in the coming years.
Note 4 - still on the AAC, that's exactly why most of this board was predicting $72 million to $96 million aav for the conference (most were saying it as $6-8 million per school per year, but "per school per year" will NEVER be found in any conference-network contract).
Note 5 - SEC seems low, slh? Yes - that's the $300 million per year number -- unless I missed something and that $300 million was additive to prior ESPN-SEC secondary deal? Will crowd source the deals info in a later post.


You could figure out the networks' value on a given deal just by flipping that math -- that is, how many viewers does my dollar spend on conference X get me?
But as much as there is a pretty straight line here, the media rights aren't just for football content. It IS a pretty straight line because a primary media rights deal is 70% to 80% football. But Conference A may offer better basketball content (that is viewers=value) than Conference B so it isn't exact.
We could add basketball viewers, but I think the conventional wisdom is that is a little less consistently reported and therefore harder. We could compare Big East basketball viewers with these, too, but again that's adding a lot of variables. (long story short - Fox overpaid for the viewership they're getting)
And there are other variables - Big East isn't the only thing Fox seems to pay more for. Fox is spending to gain market share while ESPN is the top dog. MAC looks high, right? It is -- that Tuesday/Wednesday night MACtion fills otherwise gaping holes in the ESPN/ESPN2 programming, so MAC gets paid.
Anyway, we have a rough order of magnitude of dollars per viewer and therefore could get the network perspective of viewers for dollar. That shows us the "bang for the buck" they get.

RETURN ON INVESTMENT though....you need to know what $ return ESPN gets on those games. What are their advertising revenues?
The conference-network deal is the conference selling content, which both sides will produce viewers, right?
Well the network then sells those projected viewers to advertisers. They generally aren't selling SEC viewers vs AAC viewers - just college football viewers and the inherent demographic. For season long, I mean - they are certainly selling spots in the ACC / BigXII championship game to Dr. Pepper as CCG spots, but overall it's Thursday night cfb game advertising rates on ESPN vs Thursday night cfb game advertising rates on ESPN2 vs Saturday noon slot on the various networks vs Saturday afternoon slot vs Saturday primetime vs mwc game. They sell golf viewers to a different advertiser than they sell X-Games viewers, but I believe that the demographic OVERALL for college football viewers is one thing. (another digression - MMA/UFC dollars per viewer are a lot higher than the cfb ones - they deliver a pretty homogenuous demographic in the desirable 18-34 year old male who WILL spend money on whatever you show him on TV).

So for ROI, what are the networks getting for advertising?
We don't know.
Guessing doesn't interest me anymore than a completely unfounded flight of fantasy that one conference might double its viewership.
12-29-2020 11:17 AM
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RE: ESPN's return on investment from broadcasting AAC vs. P5 (e.g., Big 12) football. - slhNavy91 - 12-29-2020 11:17 AM



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