(01-06-2021 05:17 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  

(01-06-2021 04:08 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:  

(01-06-2021 01:43 AM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  

(01-05-2021 05:56 PM)Wedge Wrote:  That's the wrong premise, because moving from the MWC to the AAC is a small step, whereas moving from the AAC to the Big 12 is a giant leap. (h/t Neil Armstrong)

If Boise State or UCF was offered the Big 12 for football only, then that is the kind of upgrade in money and status that would cause them to strongly consider dropping all of their other sports off at an orphanage, so to speak. If an athletic department makes a move like that, they are burning their bridges with every donor and potential donor who cares about any of the school's sports other than football.

There are no small steps.

Everyone realizes that the landscape can/will change dramatically in the next 5 years, and justifying your spot in the next iteration of BCS/NY6/??? is a LOT easier when you are in the top 6 conferences versus 7-8-9-10-11??

There was ALWAYS going to be some consolidation in the non-autonomy leagues to increase strength in numbers/brands. Anyone who thinks the strongest non-autonomy brands wouldn't find each other just has a narrow view of what's going on. We saw this in the BCS era when TCU kept changing leagues.

The difference in this situation is that AAC membership really won't help that much. That should be considered simply because the Big 12 could collapse within 4 years. That's within the timeline of Boise losing their special status in the Mountain West.

Given that potentiality, there's really no reason to do anything drastic this year or anytime soon until the Big 12 question is answered.

I would agree with you if the WCC was an option for Boise State sports, but if it's not then there's really no reason to create a lot of upheaval. The WAC or other leagues aren't going to help Boise State with their Olympic sports. That is especially true given that if the Big 12 disintegrates then Boise could be on the move again before the next recruiting class even graduates.

If I'm Boise then I consider independence or maybe football membership in the AAC if I can get my olympic sports into the WCC. If not then it's best to wait because nothing is lost.

The idea that Boise should play it safe and wait for a better situation because the Big 12 might "disintegrate" in 4 years certainly wasn't found persuasive by Boise State's administration.

Although it might be conceivable that "the landscape (could) change dramatically in the next 5 years," there are few indications that this is likely to happen.

In fact, seems equally possible that the P5 conferences will do as the SEC has done by simply renewing their broadcasting agreements and leaving it at that. The major networks have little motivation to shell out the vast new sums that would be required to expand the number of P5 schools, and the conferences have little incentive to increase the number of "mouths to feed" (i.e., conference schools to share their revenues with).

The Big 12's decision not to expand, a few years ago, may well be indicative of an enduring preference, which is unlikely to be reversed, and there haven't been any compelling indications that the Big 12 is on the verge of disintegrating. If there had been, the SEC might well have been involved, but as we have seen, they're moving on with no changes.

Finally, if the Big 12 should decide to add members, Boise St. wouldn't necessarily near the top of their list of expansion candidates, due to their less than stellar academic credentials and the fact that Boise hasn't yet established itself as more than quality football school.

Regardless, Boise State has weighed all of these considerations, and has decided to (preferably) switch to the AAC (FB) and another (BB/olympics) conference or - failing that - to remain in the MWC.

I wasn't talking about the Big 12 expanding, that's a very low likelihood. I'm talking about the possibility that Texas and Oklahoma could leave. If that happens then the Big 12 will likely reorganize and we'll have to see what the fallout is.

Currently, there are no indications that it will or won't happen, but there's no reason there would be. The Big 12 GOR prevents any open talk of movement.

So my point is that a significant reshuffling could come, but it won't be for another 4 years. If it doesn't happen then Boise State would be logical in pursuing the AAC, but their deal with the Mountain West won't expire before the Big 12 GOR.

Of course, you could argue that if the Big 12 breaks down then there will be a scramble among those interested in backfilling. At that point, AAC membership could give Boise State a leg up if there ends up being some sort of amalgamation of the two. I think that would be a fair point in favor of Boise pursuing the AAC now.

Nonetheless, we don't know for certain what Boise State is doing or not doing. We know what they have considered and perhaps they feel the Big 12 is stable. With certainty, we don't actually know if they want to move at all.