(12-22-2020 06:07 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(12-22-2020 05:52 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(12-22-2020 04:52 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(12-22-2020 01:29 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(12-22-2020 10:52 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  App St has generally fielded good teams, but there is a world of difference in the brand and recognition levels of Boise and any school that the AAC might select from from CUSA/MAC/SB. In the east, Army is the only G5/indy team that has that kind of brand/value that would make them an attractive addition to the AAC---and they arent interested. So--that leaves BYU, Boise, and Air Force---of which--only one has expressed and interest in joining. Thus--Boise it is.

I'm a huge fan of brand value, it's really the only thing that matters. In this case though, I just do not think Boise brings enough brand value to significantly move the needle, meaning boosting our TV value.

Maybe I am underestimating Boise, but I think if we go to ESPN and say we're adding Boise, what kind of raise do we get, the answer will be basically "nothing". The $7m for our new TV deal is about what Boise is getting from their sweetheart deal with the MWC.

Plus, there's the trouble factor. Boise is like BYU, they are a prima-donna program that thinks they are worth more than they are. The AAC, while being very disparate in geography and culture, has had a basically harmonious decision making structure - and yes, thank Aresco for that. But to me, Boise is a wildcat. Sooner or later, they will make trouble, IMO. Those who think Boise is going to step in and regard other AAC schools as their "equals" are likely in for a surprise. They might regard Cincy as an equal. Maybe UCF. That will be about it.

Their attitude is that of a natural independent. But I suspect they know they would lose value as an independent - which IMO says something about their value to a conference.

Well---I think I'd push back fairly hard on that. I think at this point, their brand value is probably fairly close to BYU's. Their ratings would certainly indicate something to that affect. I mean---given the choices available to the AAC---who has more value to the AAC than Boise? BYU and Army are the only two I'd consider "as or more" valuable. In terms of the pallet of schools currently willing to join---nobody else is even close. AppSt? UAB? Marshall? None of those are even in the ballpark in terms of brand or accomplishments. There is a reason that the MW was willing to give the Broncos a special deal.

If the AAC *has* to expand, sure, Boise would be near the top of the list. But I don't think we should, because Boise (and nobody else willing to join) would add much value.

Why do you think the MW has pushed back on Boise's special deal this past year? I suspect because Boise wasn't delivering the goods. The tacit agreement seemed to be "You get more money and favorable playing times because you carry the load in terms of TV value and getting the NY6 spot".

But the increase in TV value with Boise turned out to be very modest - ESPN obviously didn't push hard to pay them because FOX replaced ESPN as their secondary partner - and Boise has not made the NY6 in six years. They have only won the MW title twice in the past six years.

So I think the MW has concluded that Boise simply is not worth the special deal they are getting. That suggests caution for the AAC as well.

Lets be honest---the MW probably gets MAC/CUSA money if Boise isnt there.

As for expansion---I wouldnt call this expansion. We are down one school due to the UConn exit making 11 team scheduling an "odd-man-out" pain in the butt right now. The conference has made it clear we arent making a warm body replacement pick---BUT---if one of the few teams on our "adds value list" were to show interest---we would look to replace UConn. Well--Boise is on that list.

PS---the TV numbers for BYU and Boise in 2019. Spoiler alert---they arent that different when you equalize for network and opponent. In fact, the limited data indicates that Boise more often than not draws quite well even when playing G5 opponents.

NM-Boise---11/16 ESPN2 224K
Wyoming-Boise--11/9 ESPN 1.18 million
Hawaii-Boise 10/12 ESPN2 555K
AF-Boise 09/21 ESPN2 895K
Portland St-Boise ESPN2 391K
Marshall-Boise ESPN2 1.38 million
Boise-Florida St ESPN-News 1.19 million

Liberty-BYU 11/9 ESPNU 166K
Utah St-BYU 11/2 ESPN2 592K
Wash-BYU 09/21 ESPN2 593K
USC-BYU 09/14 ABC 2.67 million
BYU-Tenn 09/7 ESPN 1.6 million
Utah-BYU 08/29 ESPN 1.68 million

Boise-BYU 10/19 ESPN2 571K

I appreciate the rating stats, but let's face it - we know Boise isn't worth more than $4 million a year because that's the entire value of the new MW deal, the whole conference per school with Boise included.

I always thought the best reason to add Boise was to lop them off as a competitor for the NY6 spot. But they haven't been a competitor in more than 5 years. They've only won the MW twice the past six years, and that's while having pretty good teams. AAC teams have had no trouble grabbing the NY6 spot with Boise in another conference.

Boise just is not the same Boise of 10 years ago. They've slipped, as has their value, IMO.