(12-17-2020 01:33 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(12-17-2020 01:03 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  

(12-17-2020 12:13 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(12-17-2020 11:35 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  If I recall, Boise State - between its CBS/FS1 TV deal and its payouts from the MWC - should be getting around $7/$8 million annually between the sources of revenue. The present AAC TV deal is backloaded, again if I recall correctly, with AAC members not getting the $8/$9 million annually until the end of the deal. Thus, unless ESPN offered a sweetener, Boise State would have to take a pay cut to go to the AAC. Unlike UConn-Big East move, Boise State has little-to-no associations with the AAC or with any of its members. There is no emotional pull to draw them in, nor does it help with Olympic sports or travel costs. It didn't sound like ESPN was particularly down on losing more Boise State games to FS1 or CBS, even though Boise appeared on ESPN over 100 times since 1999. There is obviously benefit for the AAC to add Boise State; it doesn't make the AAC a P6, but it does widen the gap between the AAC and the rest of the G5. I just continue to not see what is in it for Boise State. Whether they are in the MWC or the AAC, they would have to go undefeated, unless in a unique year, to get access to the NY6 Bowl. It is probably an easier path for them to do that in the MWC.

As noted, Army, BYU or Boise State do not appear likely to be joining the AAC any time soon. If it made sense for any of those schools, they would have done so as soon as UConn left. No other program was going to add value to the AAC TV deal, so it made no sense to rush to expand when there were no clear candidates to add.

For Boise State, I think the best path for them is actually if Texas/Oklahoma depart the Big 12, causing whomever is left behind to back fill with the best of rest. They could be taken, along with BYU, with the top of the AAC. That groups them with associated power programs, while taking the top brands of the G5 to form a slightly elevated version of a best of the rest league.

Well, first off---The MW deal is back loaded as well. All these TV deals are back loaded. Secondly, Boise was expecting 5.7 in revenue from the MW in 2020 (not 7 or 8). Third, the MW has made it clear Boise's current "sweetheart deal" with the MW will end after this TV contract (5 football seasons left), so the MW could get potentially get a small raise on the next TV deal that actually results in a Boise pay cut. Finally, Boise isnt too happy with its conference mates right now and does not apparently believe they are committed to raising the level of the conference.

In the end---will Boise leave? Who knows? Whats clear is it was Boise who was looking around with the AAC as the only viable landing spot. Right now, the AAC appears to be content to sit at 11 football members until a school that actually substantially adds to the conference value and perception is available. Boise is one of the few teams that probably fits that criteria--so I could see the two getting together. My feeling is that as time clicks off the odometer of the current Mountain West TV deal, the more eager Boise will be to pull the trigger on an AAC union.

https://www.idahostatesman.com/sports/co...30068.html

My mistake. I misread the details of the article. $5.7 is right.

So, what would a football-only share within the AAC look like? 2/3? 3/4?

The original invitation agreements with Boise, SDSU, UH, SMU, and UCF specified a 70/30 football/basketball split. I'd guess something similar would be used if Boise came over--so about 5 million would be a good working number guess for a football only membership. That said--I think ESPN would probably be interested in the Boise late start games as they are light on late start inventory. Thus, it would not be a shocker if ESPN was willing to add some sort of sweetener for the AAC---or a side deal with Boise---to make the union work. Another way it becomes more viable is if Boise is just part of a 3 team group that comes to the AAC. That give ESPN as many as 18 games of late start inventory. Its not inconceivable that ESPN might like that idea enough to pay another 10 million to get 18 late starts that include 6 Boise home games and at least 2 late start Boise road games.

I guess I am not just bullish on the possibility of an AAC/Boise union, but we will all see. Boise alone, in theory, wouldn't satisfy for west coast content for ESPN/AAC because they are just one school - and if they have a road game, literally anywhere, within the AAC, then it makes the whole late night programming draw a moot point anyways. If Boise was paired with a BYU, SDSU and a CSU, then you would always have at least one late night game to showcase under the AAC brand, but we all know the historical hurdles within a proposed national coast-to-coast league. That also cuts the pie even more to the existing members, which would not get approved.

I go back to my original thought that if Boise/AAC made sense, it would have happened already. Nothing, even during COVID, has radically changed that makes the AAC want Boise State more, nor does Boise State institutionally need the AAC more. If Boise State has an undefeated season, it is likely that they are the NY6 rep; if the AAC Champ also goes undefeated, and Boise gets left out, then maybe that changes their thought - but that has not happened yet.

Again, I guess we will wait and see.