(12-17-2020 12:13 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(12-17-2020 11:35 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  If I recall, Boise State - between its CBS/FS1 TV deal and its payouts from the MWC - should be getting around $7/$8 million annually between the sources of revenue. The present AAC TV deal is backloaded, again if I recall correctly, with AAC members not getting the $8/$9 million annually until the end of the deal. Thus, unless ESPN offered a sweetener, Boise State would have to take a pay cut to go to the AAC. Unlike UConn-Big East move, Boise State has little-to-no associations with the AAC or with any of its members. There is no emotional pull to draw them in, nor does it help with Olympic sports or travel costs. It didn't sound like ESPN was particularly down on losing more Boise State games to FS1 or CBS, even though Boise appeared on ESPN over 100 times since 1999. There is obviously benefit for the AAC to add Boise State; it doesn't make the AAC a P6, but it does widen the gap between the AAC and the rest of the G5. I just continue to not see what is in it for Boise State. Whether they are in the MWC or the AAC, they would have to go undefeated, unless in a unique year, to get access to the NY6 Bowl. It is probably an easier path for them to do that in the MWC.

As noted, Army, BYU or Boise State do not appear likely to be joining the AAC any time soon. If it made sense for any of those schools, they would have done so as soon as UConn left. No other program was going to add value to the AAC TV deal, so it made no sense to rush to expand when there were no clear candidates to add.

For Boise State, I think the best path for them is actually if Texas/Oklahoma depart the Big 12, causing whomever is left behind to back fill with the best of rest. They could be taken, along with BYU, with the top of the AAC. That groups them with associated power programs, while taking the top brands of the G5 to form a slightly elevated version of a best of the rest league.

Well, first off---The MW deal is back loaded as well. All these TV deals are back loaded. Secondly, Boise was expecting 5.7 in revenue from the MW in 2020 (not 7 or 8). Third, the MW has made it clear Boise's current "sweetheart deal" with the MW will end after this TV contract (5 football seasons left), so the MW could get potentially get a small raise on the next TV deal that actually results in a Boise pay cut. Finally, Boise isnt too happy with its conference mates right now and does not apparently believe they are committed to raising the level of the conference.

In the end---will Boise leave? Who knows? Whats clear is it was Boise who was looking around with the AAC as the only viable landing spot. Right now, the AAC appears to be content to sit at 11 football members until a school that actually substantially adds to the conference value and perception is available. Boise is one of the few teams that probably fits that criteria--so I could see the two getting together. My feeling is that as time clicks off the odometer of the current Mountain West TV deal, the more eager Boise will be to pull the trigger on an AAC union.

The AAC is not viable from Boise's point of view unless it's for full membership. The whole point of the email exchange between Boise's football coach and AD is that they can't go anywhere unless there's an acceptable conference for all of their sports, and they are never going to consider the WAC or Big Sky acceptable to them. People can argue all they want about whether Boise's attitude toward those conferences is correct, but it isn't going to change.