(12-05-2020 04:39 PM)vcoog Wrote:  

(12-05-2020 04:20 PM)vcoog Wrote:  

(12-05-2020 04:18 PM)mustangxc Wrote:  

(12-05-2020 04:16 PM)vcoog Wrote:  Lol smu got super lucky to pull this out. GG. Next time don’t let them shoot the 3

Luck had nothing to do with it. We shot horribly 36.8% to Dayton's 46.7% and were up in the closing minutes. We were the better team from the better basketball league. Given the scarcity of non-conference games against solid opponents this is a big win for SMU and the league.

Actually, luck had a lot to do with it. With 7 seconds left and up 3 instead of fouling smu let Dayton take a 3pt shot to tie the game. You’re telling me scoring in 7 seconds to win the game when you could have controlled the game by forcing Dayton to foul you after their free throw shots to get the ball back isn’t lucky?

There were two paths to victory being up 3 in the final seconds and smu chose the less likely one.

On ESPN’s “win probably” with the score at 64-61 with 16 seconds left smu had an 82% chance to win, just a few seconds later since SMU chose not to foul the win probability dropped to 52% with 7 seconds left for SMU to prevent the game from going into OT. Essentially a coin flip on if smu was able to score within 7 seconds and keep control of the game.

All that said, I’m happy they pulled it out just questioning that particular decision.

Because the history is so long of not fouling the analytics tell you little about this situation. However an intentional foul with so many seconds is a sure fire way to extend the game which the winning team should be trying to avoid. The problem is that SMU did not stay home. Literally if you make the choice there are two imperatives, one do not foul, period. Do not leave your man for anything. Otherwise you need to intentionally foul at half court or force Dayton to speed up and on the drive and foul inside the 3 pt line, preferably with your hips and hands up. Doing that prevents the intentional foul call and makes the circus shot as hard as possible.

It's a philosophy thing, but SMU didn't execute their philosophical choice well and are a bit lucky to get out, though they were playing with house money since OT was the worst out come.