(09-07-2020 11:23 AM)YNot Wrote:  On defense, we have a big advantage on the dline with size, including future NFL-prospect nose tackle Khyris Tonga, 6'4", 320. We play a 4-man front and will commit to stopping the run early. We also are extremely deep and athletic in the linebacker corps, with a creative scheme this year that includes Mike, Flash, Jack, Rover, and Cinco LBs in various formations and schemes. Our secondary is better than expected. But, the knock on BYU's defense has been a soft bend-don't-break scheme and lack of pressure. I question whether the coaches will implement the right scheme to stop Navy's creative triple option scheme...I worry that we will lack the discipline to get Navy off the field. I believe that BYU will struggle here, until the red zone. Navy will score some points and limit our offensive possessions, as expected.

On offense, we have an excellent and experienced oline - we have a major size advantage here. Plus, we have three solid QBs with starting experience....I think we handle Navy's creative blitzing schemes, for the most part....but our running backs are undersized and largely untested. I doubt we see much to get excited about in the rushing game, except may be a few exciting QB scramble plays. We also struggled last year to finish drives and our red zone percentage was weak.

We lost TE Matt Bushman, our #1 receiver for the past two seasons and NFL prospect, to season-ending injury last week. We also lost most of our other leading receivers to graduation. Bushman was obviously a major focus of the offense before his injury; Isaac Rex, his backup, is a freshman but 6'6" and athletic - he will probably still get plenty of targets, but he won't replace Bushman's talent. (I note that Rex's dad was TE for Ty Detmer). We still have exciting receivers, but will need them to step up and become playmakers. A key for our offense will be to complete big plays on the deep targets.

I expect a close game with both teams scoring points, but both settling for field goals more than either would like. BYU will have a couple of explosive plays that edge out the victory.

Prediction: BYU 30, Navy 27.

Good writeup, YNot.

Navy is outsized about nine or ten times a year, but this will be on another level. Also, Navy only started hitting this last week of practice - there is a chance the physicality will be too great a change. Tonga could be a one-man game changer himself. On balance though, I like Coach Jasper and a senior QB over a DC who's never game-planned for the triple option.
When Navy is on D - size of the BYU line again a factor, and Navy's coaches have a lot of respect for Zack Wilson.

So many unknowns in this strange COVID season make prediction hard.