RE: Saturday's The Year That Wasn't (Weeks 7-9)
SEC Top 25 Losses:
W7: 31-50 // #10 Texas A*M (6-0) vs. #5 Auburn (6-0)
W7: 3-67 // #21 Miss St (4-1) vs. #1 Alabama (6-0)
W8: 28-31 // #8 LSU (6-1) vs. #29 Miss St (4-2)
W8: 28-39 // #12 South Carolina (5-1) vs. #13 Texas A*M (6-1)
W9: 13-35 // #6 Florida (6-1) vs. #16 Georgia (5-2)
W9: 14-41 // #22 Miss St (5-2) vs. #5 Auburn (7-0)
SEC-West standings after 9 weeks
#1 Alabama (8-0, 5-0 SEC) (338-121)
#3 Auburn (8-0, 5-0 SEC) (304-128)
#10 Texas A*M (7-1, 3-1 SEC) (270-198)
#21 LSU (6-2, 2-2 SEC) (252-148)
#26 Miss St (5-3, 2-3 SEC) (234-273)
#60 Ole Miss (3-5, 1-4 SEC) (208-240)
#107 Arkansas (1-7, 0-5 SEC) (148-262)
SEC-East
#19 South Carolina (6-2, 4-2 SEC) (244-147)
#16 Florida (6-2, 4-2 SEC) (310-135)
#8 Georgia (6-2, 3-2 SEC) (252-165)
#35 Missouri (5-3, 3-2 SEC) (238-192)
#43 Tennessee (4-4, 2-3 SEC) (182-209)
#58 Kentucky (4-4, 1-4 SEC) (180-242)
#102 Vanderbilt (2-6, 0-5 SEC) (147-233)
Alabama and Auburn are the only two undefeated SEC teams and the only two with realistic playoff chances. They are on a collision course to meet in the season-ending Iron Bowl. The Tide are favored to take the division (77% to Auburn's 22%, with A&M managing 1%), and are nearly guaranteed a playoff spot, even with a loss. There is a 31% chance both make the playoff, though the Iron Bowl champion likely gets to stay closer, in New Orleans.
Georgia controls their destiny in the East but with 2 losses already (to the West-leading Auburn and Alabama) the margins are tight. The Bulldogs have a 43% chance of winning the division. South Carolina nearly has control too, needing #35 Missouri to drop a game to #26 MSU or #16 Florida (or, ha, #107 Arkansas). Georgia and South Carolina meet next week in Columbia.
The Florida Gators have the easiest conference schedule remaining and thus a distinct chance of winning the East, 33%. The Missouri Tigers have a 3% chance of going to Atlanta.
Overall Playoff Chances:
87% Alabama
40% Auburn
<1% Texas A&M, Georgia, LSU, Florida, South Carolina
If they win-out:
100% Alabama and Auburn
27% Texas A&M
7% Georgia (still to play #19 South Carolina)
<1% LSU, Florida, South Carolina
Of the top four SEC West teams, only A&M and Auburn have played each other, setting up a riveting final 4 weeks.
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