(05-30-2020 01:47 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  

(05-30-2020 01:35 AM)spenser Wrote:  

(05-30-2020 12:27 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  [quote='jedclampett' pid='16839714' dateline='1590815598']
Question:

Can anybody explain why C-USA is viewed as being particularly likely to be affected by realignment by 2026, even moreso than the Big 12 and AAC?

There are those who believe in the fabled CUSA/Sun Belt reorg, so that might be a source of some voters who'd choose CUSA and not necessarily the Big 12 or AAC. You might say then why isn't the Sun Belt vote higher? A minor realignment in which the Big 12 loses only a few members could mean that the trickle-down effect would pass through the AAC but stop at CUSA, which has members to spare, before reaching the Sun Belt. And then there are those who may think the only realignment will be due to the AAC replacing UConn, and the likeliest replacements are in CUSA.

That's a very good, parsimonious explanation for the data. William of Occam would approve!

(05-30-2020 01:35 AM)spenser Wrote:  The most likely if AAC doesn't get a rule change for Divisionless and decides not to play uneven Divisions( 6&5). UAB is a easy fillin 12th team. Would be a 2nd level team 6-10th place in FB and at large range for Basketball. Both would be upgrades from what UConn was for the AAC.

Interesting possibility. Perhaps more likely add from C-USA would be Marshall (FB only), with a BB/olympic add such as VCU from the A-10.

Marshall is basically eliminated because the school Presidents are the ones who decide. Marshall Athletics are only that good because of Partial and Non Qualifier players. Academics would need years of overhauling.

As for FB only and Olympic school split: Air Force, Army, BYU, and maybe Boise would have the FB and Academic level. Even App State FB only wouldn't get the Presidents yes votes.

All sports list then is behind those.
Notables in my opinion are UAB, Southern Miss, Colorado State, Georgia State. None are slam dunks, but hit that 6-10 range.

They potentially push the less consistent: Tulsa, Tulane, ECU, SMU, Temple, and USF. Cincy, UCF, Memphis, Houston, and Wichita/Navy are usually the Top 5, one might slip in a given year but bounce back.