(03-28-2024 11:35 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(03-27-2024 07:17 AM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  

(03-27-2024 07:08 AM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  

(03-26-2024 08:54 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  I see that the PAC-2 is close to signing a 1 year deal with the CW for their home games.

Someone who was angry that we missed out on these two must-have schools please explain it to me.

I will wager that the top two AAC teams in viewers on our contract outdraw the viewership of these thirteen games.

The issue is not what the PAC-2 does alone, but the impact on the AAC upon joining other schools either by MWC membership or by creating a "best of the rest" conference. Dismissing the threat at this point is premature, IMO.

Yup. Those two schools aren't staying indy forever. They are buying time until the ACC goes boom in the next few years.

Yeah, well, seven to eight months ago there were literally thousands of posts on this board about WSU and OSU.

One theme - the one I was poking fun at - was that the AAC was absolutely missing the boat in not pulling in WOSU. Posters pilloried Aresco, blamed every school but their own for rejecting WOSU, and more. This was silly for more than one reason. First the two schools were determined NOT to merge with another conference; their priority remains to maintain and rebuild the PAC. Second, both of those presidents have no interest in shifting eastward. Third, and the point here, there was some wild overestimation of the value those two schools offer, if the AAC had been able to entice them.

The market has spoken. The best case ceiling for this CW contract is probably $20 million total, $10 million per school. That's the market value of a WOSU.

So, that's also their value in whatever "best of the rest" construct is out there. If that's WOSU, plus the top 4 mwc (at $4.5 million each), plus 4 AAC schools (at $7 million each)...that's a $6.6 million per school conference. Even if they magically make other schools worth the same....An AAC school making $10 million per year in a new conference needs 6 years to break even from an $18 million exit fee. If the all-sports travel to Corvallis and Pullman and Boise is $1 million per year (remember UConn president said they would save $2 million per year replacing Tulsa with Omaha and Wichita with Milwaukee...) you need 9 years to break even.

Connecting them to a post-ACC world?
Okay, IF there is an ACC jailbreak, and IF the PAC2 is still alive to see it...they're second in line picking programs to make a new conference, behind the rebuilding rump ACC. If Calford don't win in the ACC jailbreak scenario, they are NOT getting back together with WOSU to rebuild from there -- they placed their bet and that bet was taking reduced ACC shares to get away from WOSU. PAC2 plus a couple mwc (the scheduling deal made it expensive for WOSU to pick and choose mwc schools rather then merge) may be picking CTZ AAC schools after the ACC is done. The question is who do Cal, Stanford, GT, Wake, BC, etc take and who do they leave for WOSU et al?

Either way, the actual value of WOSU is demonstrated by this CW deal and that will be the driver, either in a "best of the rest" or "when the ACC goes boom."

I think for W/OSU the best scenario is for the ACC to not fall apart any time soon, survive one year and then pick off the best of the rest from MW/AAC (say the top 4 or 5 from each conference) to form a new conference under the P10 brand. Then they would hope to get a couple decent options if the ACC explodes later. That is what they are probably angling for, but I am not sure that they are likely to get it.

More likely they just do an inverted takeover with the MW and call it the P10 (or Pac something). I think they would ditch Wyoming and New Mexico and maybe Hawaii while doing that if they could, but they might not be able to pull that off.

They will try to pretend that this new version is part of the power conferences (and if they get scenario 1 above they might even have an argument) but I do not think that they will get that level support in terms of payday or treatment. It will still likely be the #1 football G5/6 conference from that point until something changes.