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(10-12-2020 12:12 AM)Bearcatbdub Wrote:  

(10-11-2020 05:27 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  I've been in favor of reopening since about late may, but that does not in any way mean we should recklessly abandon all restrictions and just let it fly. Sweden has had one of the worst responses to the virus and their mortality and infection rates reflect it.

We should take cues from countries that have successfully reopened (of which there are many) and work from there. Instead it seems like we're going to continue back down the rabbit hole we went through in June because people are incapable of understanding the nuance of this spectrum.

To reiterate, being pro-reopening does not mean you should suddenly start downplaying the threat of the virus or precautionary measures or statements. Cases are rising once again and so are hospitalizations. I don't want to see a repeat of the summer.

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I’m curious just what exactly you suggest that we do. I’m guessing that the countries you mention that have “successfully” reopened are now seeing a resurgence in cases- as is most of Western Europe. I could be totally wrong, but it looks like you got to pay the piper sooner or later. You either face it on your own terms, or hide in the hidey hole like the little rabbit.

And to be clear, I am not downplaying the threat of the virus, it’s killing people. I am saying you do your best to Shelter those at risk both publicly and privately, And support that openly. But you have to let the others choose as they will. And that’s pretty much what is bearing out.

dub, this certainly appears to be the case. You can run, but you can't hide from it. I just wish there was some consistency in how data is reported/used. It seems that if you want to rail on a big/populous country you use gross numbers, and if you want to rail on a smaller populous you use rates. We have a lower fatality rate than Sweden, Finland, or the Netherlands and just above Norway. So using rates Sweden must be terrible and we're as good or better than those Nordic folk. Use gross numbers and we are monsters at >700 per day, but Sweden, Finland, and Norway are all currently less than 1 per day. (ourworldindata.org) Then there is the scale of everything. Is Sweden that much worse losing say 1.8 people per day on a rolling 7 day average on a bad week vs. a neighbor at 0.2 per day? I mean technically yes, but practically, I'd say with these small numbers they're in the same ball park. Honestly, it's really hard to say anything definitive yet since this story is still being told. Call me Pollyanna, but I do believe the lion's share of leadership are honestly doing their best and I don't envy them.