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(08-27-2020 12:06 PM)Bearcatbdub Wrote:  

(08-27-2020 10:58 AM)MickMack Wrote:  

(08-27-2020 10:52 AM)bearcats23 Wrote:  

(08-27-2020 10:09 AM)MickMack Wrote:  

(08-26-2020 02:59 PM)bearcats23 Wrote:  I mentioned that back in May we started seeing more data that showed a mortality rate closer to 0.2% - 0.6% compared to the 3-6% BS that the media was pumping at the time. This correlates to when the CDC revised their estimated mortality rate to be 0.26%, as referenced in the link below dated May 27th.

http://www.fccoop.org/?p=10552

The CDC has revised their numbers to the 0.26% no longer shows up on their website, looks like their latest estimate is closer to the 0.5% or 0.6% as referenced on their website now.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nco...arios.html

I've read articles that other studies are saying their best estimate at this point is 0.4%. Either way, we had fear mongering numbers of 3% - 6% pumped down our throats for 3 months and the media has been pretty quiet in publishing the real numbers now that we know it's a fraction of their original projection.

With regards to the flu it looks like the official CDC numbers say 12,000 - 61,000 die annually. I know I read that the 2018 season had a projected 80,000 deaths, which is why I had that number in my head. The first link is the CDC official estimates, and the second is a 2018 article which references the CDC's estimate of 80,000 deaths at that time.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/ind...ce%202010.

https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-...hs-winter/

The bottom line is that we ignore the tens of thousands of flu deaths annually, but we are self destructing over COVID. I assume there's only two explanations, one is that the lives of the tens of thousands of flu cases don't matter, or two is that the media and liberals are pumping this thing to cause maximum disruption heading into November.

Here are the actual CDC numbers: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nco...in-us.html

Divide deaths (177,759) by cases (5,752,653). Please check my math but I get 3%.

That's very flawed. It's well known that the actual number infected is far greater than the number of confirmed cases, which obviously would put the mortality rate significantly lower than 3%. Widespread antibody testing of certain groups has told us that much.Your math is looking just at confirmed cases. If we did our calculation that way for influenza the fatality rate would be wayyyy higher than 0.1%.

The infection fatality rate for COVID is projected to be between 0.2% - 0.6%. In other words, if you get infected, there's a 0.2% - 0.6% chance that you die. If you're under the age of 65 that goes down exponentially.

Bottom line is this virus kills nowhere near 3% of the people that get infected with it. It's difficult to pinpoint accurately at this point but there's been multiple studies already that are projecting the IFR to be <1%, and it seems the most common consensus is that it's around 0.4%-0.5%.

So instead of saying that the CDC's mortality rate is .2% - .6% (because that wouldn't be a true statement), perhaps you should say "the number I made up based on factors I believe to be true is .2% - .6%." Wouldn't you agree that's a more accurate statement?

You may disagree with what he is saying but I don’t think it’s fair to frame his position like that. Here is a another article that shows the estimate- albeit it’s a bit of a spin piece too, and from June. https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.usatoda...5269331002

CDC estimated a deathrate of 0.2-0.6 with a guestimate of 0.4.

Nobody can prove the amount of asymptomatic undiagnosed cases because we frankly just don’t know. But we can draw conclusions based on anectdotal data just like every other study is doing these days. If you are going to argue for asymptomatic spreaders you have to acknowledge there are more cases than we know.

You're mixing up two issues here. Issue 1: he literally said the CDC was reporting .2-.6 mortality rate. I simply linked to the numbers and pointed out that the CDC is not, in fact, reporting that mortality rate. That's fact checking.

Issue 2: he believes, based on a number of factors, that the actual mortality rate is between .2 - .6%. I have absolutely no qualms with him making that argument.

But (back to Issue 1) facts matter. And the indisputable fact is that the CDC's website reflects a 3% mortality rate.