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(08-11-2020 08:30 AM)Z-Fly Wrote:  So you are putting all of your eggs in the rushed vaccine basket? Honest question.

Not neccesarily. We don't know a lot about the virus-it's been 8 months. Previously we hoped it was seasonal, and would dissipate in the summer. That didn't happen. But what if, maybe, it mutates and becomes less virulent for the winter? Or it gets worse?

The most important thing is giving researchers time for 1. Refining Covid-care policies, 2. Developing novel therapeutics that are effective and 3. Developing a vaccine.

For #1, we already have good evidence that medical personal have become more adept at treating covid since March. For #2, there haven't been any gamechanging devleopments in drug R&D, but they've devised some novel options like plasma therapy/antibody delivery, and repackaged old medical drugs for use (like Remdesivir). It's not going to be a Eureka! moment everyone hopes for, but in 3 months they at least have options. And for #3, there are a bunch of unique candidates for vaccines in development. Yes, it's always a concern when medicine is rushed. That was the primary concern in the 80's when HIV drugs went into production and were both effective combatants of HIV but also remarkably damaging to your health. It's important to give researchers time to conduct good, robust clinical trials.

So, I don't think it's a dichtomy (either herd immunity or vaccine). I think the endgame here is that a combination of those medical factors + tempered reopening efforts will ultimately be the end game here. Herd immunity plays a role, certainly, but not in the sense that we infect x people and suddenly this goes away. That's why I think it's important we devise solid plans for going back to school/work/athletics/etc.