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(08-07-2020 09:40 AM)OKIcat Wrote:  

(08-07-2020 07:41 AM)bww Wrote:  

(08-07-2020 07:27 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(08-07-2020 07:22 AM)bww Wrote:  

(08-07-2020 06:46 AM)Bear Catlett Wrote:  Of course he was false positive.

So how many of these "cases" that have been reported are false positive?

Yet when the numbers magically go up, that's when those in charge start jumping up and down and cancelling things... like football seasons.

Do we actually know what the false positive % is on these tests? I hope this at least wakes up somebody in the media to report what this number may be. 2%? 5%? even more??

How do we know what false negative percent? How do we know how many positive don't get tested?

Most data I've seen suggests numbers are underreported not over reported.

Found something on both questions.

CDC Coronavirus Test Kits Generate 30% False Positive and 20% False Negative Results - Connecticut Pathologist’s Newly Published Findings Confirm

Link

If this linked headline is correct, these are very large numbers, both directions. I have no idea what the scientifically acceptable standards might be for false positive or false negative results, but this doesn't inspire much confidence in the testing.

And so "grand total" cases must be overstated by as much as 10%? That would suggest actual infections are overstated each day since any positive test is added to the big tally board. Drilling a little deeper, how many with positive results are either asymptomatic or exhibit only mild or short term flu-like symptoms? The vast majority of that cohort it would seem.

I've seen significantly different numbers elsewhere. Many of the numbers i've seen show more false negatives than false positives. If administered correctly, my understand is you're unlikely to get either. I'll see if I can find some other data when I have free time.

However, even this data which would be problematic, doesn't necessarily suggest the grand total is overstated by as much as 10%. We know there are asymptomatic carriers that never get tested that will never be counted. Most of what I've seen suggests that number is significantly. I'd be stunned if we're overcounting. Most I've seen suggests we're undercounting.