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(08-05-2020 01:16 PM)Bearcatbdub Wrote:  

(08-05-2020 11:39 AM)MickMack Wrote:  

(08-05-2020 11:08 AM)Z-Fly Wrote:  

(08-05-2020 11:03 AM)BearcatMan Wrote:  

(08-05-2020 10:41 AM)cmhcat Wrote:  https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/COVIDNet/COVID19_3.html

Hospitalization rate is not going up

I get that...a sine-wave has peaks and troughs, that's what I'm saying. We won't commit to something long enough to kill it, we'll see the first tick of a downturn, open everything up, and see another spike like we did this past month.

The virus doesn't die, unless vaccine or herd immunity happens. Shutting down only delays the spread.

Just curious but have you done the back-of-the-napkin math on herd immunity? We're currently at around 60,000 cases per day. Assuming even 1/2 the population would need to get it to achieve herd immunity (which is extremely generous) that's 165,000,000. Divide that by 60,000 and you're looking at well over 2,000 days. Is that realistic in your mind?

Yeah but you have to multiply the cases per day by a fudge factor to determine the actual cases. Bunches of asymptomatic and undiagnosed cases. But yeah, by the time herd immunity rolls around it will be 2050.

Yeah, I'm no expert here. But just that back of the napkin math, even fudged a bit, seems like a long ass time to me.