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(07-06-2020 10:20 AM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  The reason I bring up recent hospitalizations is because a large uptick in mortality in Mid/Late-July would be really, really difficult to square with the start of the season. Previously the concern was that a second wave might hit in the winter time AFTER the fall sports end. Is that still a concern if the second wave instead hits now? Is there a third wave? Will a vaccine hit the market by December?

All tough to say. But after seeing states like Texas and Arizona suddenly rescind on their reopening efforts and close down bars and restaurants, I do worry that another uptick in mortality in the next few weeks might be enough to make the CFB powers decide by August 1st that they simply can't take the risk this season. The blog I posted seemed to interpret most mortality data lagging about 3-weeks behind hospitalization data. Think about the timeline.

I've maintained for a little that I think we will have a season with serious limitations (I'd be shocked if we get over 50% capacity) and if I were a betting man, I'd put my money on CFB following the MLB/European soccer model of reducing traveling staffs and playing in empty stadiums.

Even with the uptick in mortality, after the numbers get adjusted, this will be on par with the flu.

Either go for it or go home.