(03-13-2020 11:17 AM)lifelongtiger Wrote:  

(03-13-2020 11:12 AM)ncrdbl1 Wrote:  

(03-13-2020 09:33 AM)lifelongtiger Wrote:  

(03-13-2020 08:24 AM)bluebacker Wrote:  There are roughly 1 billion cases worldwide every year and on the average about 500,000 people die from it.

The range of deaths each year from seasonal flu is 300,000 to 650,000.

Every year.

By your numbers that's a 0.05% mortality rate while COVID19 is about a 2% mortality rate. That's a huge difference. If 2% of the people who got the flu died that would be about 20 million deaths. Doesn't it make sense to err on the side of caution until more is known about the virus? It's already mutated once so there are 2 strains out there now with one being worse. What happens if it mutates again to an even deadlier version? Need to flatten the curve before everyone can get on with their lives.

Mortality rates as of this morning.

Worldwide 3.68%
Mainland China 3.93%
US 2.2%
Italy 6.7%
Iran 4.5%
Iraq 9.6%
Germany 0.2%
France 2.1%
UK 1.7%
Spain 2.3%


The US has had 1,832 cases an increase of 116 in the past 24 hours, 31 recoveries an increase of 1 in the past 24 hours and 41 deaths an increase of 1 in the past 24 hours. The latest death was a man in Kansas.

I used the US mortality rate. So at the worldwide rate, the flu would kill almost 37 million people if it had the same mortality rate. People are stuck on the total deaths as the comparison to the flu and that's simply the wrong way to compare the two.

Nope, if you are going to use math to prove something it has to be applied to both.

350k people in the US were hospitalized and 20k died due to the flu
1800 people in the US have been hospitalized and 41 have died due to coronavirus..

If you want to use the 36mil number, then you have to apply the same math to coronavirus which would be 18mil and only 41 deaths.