(04-22-2020 10:57 PM)GeorgeBorkFan Wrote:  

(04-22-2020 05:37 PM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  The article did not say it was "unsound". You need to apologize to the article. It quoted others in the field who found fault with its analysis. Scientists disagreeing with someone who's application is different than their own….that's every scientist.

"IHME initially projected 38,000 to 162,000 U.S. deaths. The White House combined those estimates with others to warn of 100,000 to 240,000 potential deaths."

Shouldn't you be more concerned about the models that pushed IHME's low end of 38k to 100k and high end of 162K to 240K? Had the White house only said somewhere between 38 and 162 with about 80 expected, no one would have freaked. I think most fear was already installed from Italy.

We have no end game solution. What we have is a buy-some-time solution. That's all we are doing right now.

There's going to be foolish policies. They're just quick, cover-all reactions. I think they're made to be easily enforceable. They don't want to have to measure boats. Or store sizes. It won't be fair to everyone, but its done with regard to the entire population, not individuals.

I would like to see more testing of the general populace immediately. If the infection rate is much higher than believed and if we are really expecting this thing to return in fall and be worse, herd immunity is the best corse. I agree we can't stay the way we are and I'd bet we will do the logical thing we all are thinking….quarantine the vulnerable, practice SD for the rest. I'm OK with how things have been handled up to now. This hit hard and fast and no one had answers. But if the curve is flattening and it starts to retreat I would think we have enough viable data to make a real decision soon.

From the article:

Even the predictions of daily deaths “have been highly inaccurate,” said statistician Sally Cripps of the University of Sydney, who led a team that examined IHME’s up-and-down projections. “It performs poorly even when it predicts the number of next-day deaths: The true number of next-day deaths has been outside the 95% intervals 70% of the time.” If the 95% calculation correctly reflects a model’s uncertainty, then textbook statistics say the true numbers can fall outside that range no more than 5% of the time.

It can't be made any clearer for you.

There is no defense for the illogical executive orders. They aren't being written so fast that no one has time to think about them. It is being done poorly and most likely illegally. That is really it. The real shame is a lot of this effort is wasted. But hey, Lightfoot is entertaining, so all is good.