(04-17-2021 06:04 PM)Foreverandever Wrote:  

(04-17-2021 11:15 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  One factor to consider would be basketball attendance. Pre-Covid he MVC averaged 4,246 in 2020 down slightly from 4,395 in 2019 season.They probably don't want a school below about 60% of the average, but who knows?

Assuming that is important as a measure of the long term ability of the basketball program, here are the options (2020). I also added Men's Basketball budget from equity in athletics, NET rating last year and FT undergrads (also from equity in athletics). NET really needs a five year average (actually at this level it can be inconsistent because you get good up and coming coach, they can be plucked at any moment):

Murray State = 4,887 (MBB = $2,398,909; NET = 198) Enrollment: 6,187
Wright State = 4,154, (MBB = $3,330,147; NET = 74) Enrollment: 8,347
Northern Kentucky = 3,559 (MBB = $2,470,374; NET = 217) Enrollment: 8,475
Oakland = 3,203 (MBB = $1,940,265; NET = 255) Enrollment: 12,610
Oral Roberts = 2,398 (MBB = $2,085,974; NET = 125) Enrollment: 2,847
Omaha = 2,393 (MBB = $1,262,543; NET = 322) Enrollment: 9,827
Belmont = 2,320 (MBB = $5,129,856; NET = 92) Enrollment: 6,349
Lipscomb = 2,172 (MBB = $2,228,677; NET = 240) Enrollment: 2,736
// attendance is too low (red flag)
UT Arlington = 1,754 (MBB = $2,557,576; NET = 242) Enrollment: 19,302
UIC = 1,715 (MBB = $2,248,503; NET = 292) Enrollment: 18,928
Little Rock = 1,506 (MBB = $2,126,312; NET = 221) Enrollment: 3,856
Detroit Mercy = 1,437 (MBB = $3,276,678; NET = 174) Enrollment: 2,485
Cleveland State = 1,501 (MBB = $2,140,282; NET = 170) Enrollment: 9,270
Milwaukee = 1,432 (MBB = $2,588,033; NET = 237) Enrollment: 17,890


Tickets and Donations (ticket sales are for all sports, public schools only):

Omaha (tix = $3,272,742; donations = $747,593) // Hockey may be inflating their gate number
Little Rock (tix = $1,483,869; donations = $1,401,399)
Murray State (tix = $1,428,673; donations = $1,066,307) // Football likely is half their donations and ticket sales
Wright State (tix = $402,508; donations = $359,509)
UT Arlington (tix = $395,022; donations = $653,137)
Northern Kentucky (tix = $343,516; donations = $957,231)
UIC (Ttix = $298,146, Donations = $534,795)
Milwaukee (tix = $228,348; donations = $965,185)
Oakland (tix = $233,069; donations = $447,688)
Cleveland State (tix = $204,669; donations = $624,760)

Notes:
* No data on privates Belmont, Oral Roberts, Detroit Mercy, Lipscomb.
* NET needs to average low 100s or better every year to actually help.
* Omaha's budget is way too small, NET is in the 300s. Those are red flags.
* Little Rock is not directing revenue to the program.
* Little Rock has low enrollment for a public school, and high gate for low attendance suggests low student interest.
* UIC has struggled most years, has low fan interest level.
-- I think this program has a high ceiling, something is wrong with this program (another DePaul but at a lower level)
* Belmont, Detroit Mercy and Wright State have the most resources invested. UDM however has weak fundamentals otherwise
* Murray State and Northern Kentucky are solid enough for a look
* Oral Roberts is a one hit wonder right now. They are intriguing, need to invest more and show they can sustain.

The metrics say four or five schools worth consideration:

Belmont, Wright State, Murray State, Northern Kentucky and perhaps also Oral Roberts.

ORU is just rebuilding from a pretty rough period. They have had success in every decade of their existence and had it going pretty good in 70s/80s before cooling off and seeing more spotty success. The budget and other stuff (facilities, compensation) would put them middle of the MVC in that 5-8 range for comparisons.. Their home court goes about 10k and they have had it rocking there before, but probably 5k would be the sort of crowds you could expect with a better incoming set of schools than the Dakotas and Western Ill that ORU feels no connection with. In really good years maybe you seek 6k or 7k average.

Yes, MVC is the league ORU fans have wanted in for 25 years since Tulsa left. They have a loyal fan base that would draw adequately and would fit in well culturally.

ORU draws real well when they’re winning. Look at 2012:
Oakland 9005
UMKC 6850
WIU 8617
BracketBusters 7745

ORU’s fan support, budget, etc are up to par for MVC. They’ve had up-and-down stretches with a Sweet 16 peak like many MVC schools.

ORU’s whole issue in realignment is they’re a non-FB, midwestern Liberty - university presidents are their kryptonite.