(11-18-2020 01:01 PM)lion1983 Wrote:  

(11-18-2020 12:35 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  Well, with the recent news of Eastern Kentucky, Jacksonville State and Central Arkansas about to join the ASUN, let's bump this thread, and look back about what a big dummy I am and/or how right I turned out to be.

And respect and apologies to Lion1983.

(02-07-2020 10:37 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(01-25-2020 10:01 AM)lion1983 Wrote:  Except for the fact that the Big South is already planning to shut down. There will be no more Big South....

Became:

Quote:IF all of a bunch of things happen--some plausible, some not very plausible--THEN the Big South MIGHT shut down.

Quote:Now to the factual quibbling

Quote:With A&T, you have Hampton, Campbell, Gardner Webb, and Charlston Southern with full membership.

UNA, KSU and Monmouth are football only.

That's 5 full members, which puts you one short. And three affiliates.

Compared to the UAC, which is somewhere between 0 and 2 members, depending on whether UNA and KSU stay in the ASUN.

As a math teacher, I feel the need to point out that 5 is more than 2.

The ASUN now has 5 FCS playing members, and 5 is equal to 5.

Quote:If that stays in track, everything is good. But, if UNA and KSU does leave for whatever reason, be it the UAC, or some other conferences, you are down to 6.

Except--there is no UAC. There IS a Big South football conference. So if UNA and KSU leave, they need to find 4 FCS schools for a conference. The Big South has to find 1--or none if Monmouth doesn't also find a new home.

I know I'm bringing in advanced math concepts here, but much like 5 is more than 2, 4 is more than 1.

Well, the ASUN is one short of an FCS conference, while the Big South is still at 6 (assuming UNA and KSU bail). That gap is closing rapidly.

Quote:

Quote:So yeah, there are many reasons the Big South may end up dropping football. May not happen, but those are very realistic scenarios.

Sure:
IF Monmouth finds a conference home (plausible, but notice that they haven't)
--AND the ASUN football schools pull out of the Big South to join a conference with at least 4 schools TBD ASUN just picked up 3 football schoools, so this box is close to checked. From 4 schools TBD to 1.
--AND the Big South can't find a D2 callup or two and get a waiver for a couple of years to get back to compliance (waivers for existing leagues seem really easy to come by)
THEN the Big South conference is in trouble.

We're one addition away from an ASUN FCS conference.

And an important note I missed before: Big South is losing Presbyterian football. So if KSU and UNA are leaving, they're one school short. (Carve up the MEAC? scrounge up a D-2 callup? Drop football--looking at wikipedia, the conference has men's baseball and mens' soccer. That still puts 4 Big South schools plus Monmouth in a bad spot.) I took a quick look at wikipedia, forgot that the Big South added NCA&T, so they're at 5+1

I'm still not sure how any of the UAC shuffling is supposed to work.

No apology needed.

And I was wrong about some of this...

But I do know what the ASUN is trying to do.

People tend to forget about UNF, JU, Stetson and FGCU. They have very limited options when it comes to having a home outside of the ASUN. If the ASUN cant keep, UNA, KSU and at least Lipscomb, it's a bad day for the Florida schools. And using DavidSts idea about bringing up every D2 school that has more than 25 students just ain't viable.

The ASUN has good schools in it, might as well try to keep them...

The likely schools in the area in D2 that could move up are West Georgia, Valdosta State, West Florida, Augusta, Columbus State, Tampa and Nova Southwestern.