(01-18-2020 02:37 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(01-18-2020 10:40 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(01-17-2020 02:41 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(01-17-2020 02:16 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(01-17-2020 01:46 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  Don't forget, you said, "Navy probably goes 6-6 in the SEC or B1G. Most others as well."

So you must have meant that Cincinnati, Memphis, and UCF (half of the "others" who were ranked) would go 6-6 in the SEC or B1G, too.

You've made it clear that you see a huge divide between Missouri/Kentucky recruiting and Cincinnati, Memphis...the rest of the AAC...

So the Cincinnati, Memphis, UCF would also be too beat up from all those games against the non-Alabama, non-LSU members of the SEC?

Always slippery, LOL. My full comment was:

"I think for a good G5 it helps to be in G5 to finish ranked.as you can rack up 9 or more wins easier.

I doubt most of those 7 finish ranked if they played in P5 conferences. Navy probably goes 6-6 in the SEC or B1G. Most others as well."

So when I said "most" I was talking about most of the G5 teams in the rankings, IIRC four from the AAC, two from the MW, and App State. I also was talking about the entirety of the SEC, B1G, etc. not just the runts of those conferences.

How many of those seven? Haven't thought about it. But "most".

But for an example, do I think Memphis goes anywhere near 12-1 in the SEC? No, I do not.

As for the talent divide, I think I've made it clear that there *is* a significant talent divide. After the facts from this discussion I don't think anyone can doubt that. It is my opinion that this divide would result in Navy getting beat up and worn down if they played in the SEC East.

You calling anyone slippery is laughable.

Do you or do you not think Memphis would go 6-6 in the SEC or B1G? Not 12-2. They were one of the seven ranked teams along with Navy.
Do you or do you not think Cincinnati would go 6-6 in the SEC or B1G? Not 11-3. They were one of the seven ranked teams along with Navy.
Do you or do you not think UCF would go 6-6 in the SEC or B1G? Not 10-3. They were one of the seven ranked teams along with Navy.

I never said Navy would go 11-2 in the SEC. I didn't even say they WOULD go 9-4. But when you blindly asserted that Navy and most of the seven ranked non-contract-bowl-conference teams would go 6-6 in the SEC I pointed out that predictive analytics differed from that.

You are totally slippery, like an eel. I swat one of your points down in post (a) and you just move the goalposts on in post (b), wash and rinse. That's how it went here.

As for the bolded part, after you mentioned the MC widget results, I opined that the MC widget can't account for cumulative wearing-out effects Heck, I doubt it was designed for that, it's probably designed for single-game matchups, like Navy vs Tennessee, not sequences of games. We don't really even need that kind of thing, as we can see from the MC ratings who MC 'thinks' would win a given game.

To answer your three questions about specific teams - I'm not sure, assuming they all have 4 easy OOC games and win them all, a 3-5 conference record is likely, so maybe 7-5, 8-4 at best, 6-6 a decent possibility as well? Somewhere in there. Let's say 7-5 most likely, with 6-6 and 8-4 being the other good possibilities.

Navy would probably cap out a game or so lower though, because even though their talent is AAC-level, it's at the lower end of the AAC, hence a wider gap with the SEC teams than those teams. They would suffer the beat down/grind down to a greater degree. The size of the linemen would be a big problem IMO.

Well, you've swatted nothing, but whatever.

The record of posts is there - you bobbed and dodged and got swatted down anyway. Not surprising as you had an untenable position once you tried to talk talent. Navy 9-4 in the SEC with their talent, good grief.