(12-12-2019 12:26 AM)JRsec Wrote:  Look, there are a lot of changes coming in the next 5 years. When they get player's compensation / rights figured out then we have to wait on the new media contracts.

Once the SEC and Big 10 have signed their new rights agreements then we'll know what the lure might be for schools like Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas, if there is a lure. We'll know whether the Big 12 gets a bump or hits a wall in terms of revenue as compared to what the SEC and Big 10 are likely to receive. The PAC and the ACC will have to play wait and see to find out really how far behind they will be in terms of revenue.

Within the next 3 or 4 years the ACCN will have been operational long enough to know whether it is the plus they hoped for, or not.

Once those events have passed then we will know if anyone is moving to 16 members or if everyone is staying put.

When all of that is passed then we'll know where the playoffs stand. If the SEC and Big 10 move to 16 then we are likely moving to a P4 and if that becomes a champs only and the conferences move to a semi-final then it will be because the conferences want to own more of their playoff revenue and having semis would come close to doubling their revenue even if they are only worth half as much as their CCG. The Big 10 and SEC would be more likely to favor something that allows them to negotiate their own rates because those two CCG's now are lucrative, more lucrative than moving to a quarterfinal for a CFP expansion. I think 4 P conferences with semis is more likely than seeing an expansion of the CFP to 8 teams. I believe this for 2 reasons. Moving to conference semis doesn't mean their losers are out of the bowls. Moving to an 8 team CFP further reduces the allure of Bowl games period. An 8 team CFP utilize 7 bowls simply makes the other 25 even more irrelevant.

So let's not get the carts before the horses.
Step 1: Settle players status with regards to compensation and rights.
Step 2: Sign the new media contracts.
Step 3: Adjust for any realignment.
Step 4: Keep the current CFP or Redesign it.

All of Steps #1,2,& 3 must be settled before Step #4 can be considered.

This ^ will be the catalyst, JR. When the Big 12 fails to increase payouts significantly some network will encourage some conference to reach out to Oklahoma or Texas and it will be "on".
I fully expect the entire process ( your 4 steps) will be completed before the end of 2025.
Everyone is prepared, battle plans are drawn, we're just waiting for somebody to shoot the Archduke.