(12-04-2019 02:38 PM)ksu315 Wrote: - maybe its just the mid major model or mac model but we rely so much on the guards and 3 pointers that come those 3 days in march that's not likely sustainable to win 3 in 3 games. Whittington is our true only low post option and he seems to be an officials target for foul trouble. So why not spend some minutes or even sacrifice a loss here or there in non-conference to try and see if one of these young bigs can give you 8-12 minutes a night.
I want to talk about this point for a minute. If you're looking at Kent St in a bubble I won't say you're wrong that we rely heavily on 3's. When analyzing a team's offensive breakdown I like to look at the percentage of 'offensive opportunities' that end in a 2 point attempt, a 3 point attempt, a turnover, and free throws (using the accepted multiplier of 0.475 * FTA to convert free throws to offensive opportunities). This is more valuable than looking at total number of attempts because you're adjusting for pace.
Note: When I say 'offensive opportunity' I'm simply saying FGA + TO + (0.475*FTA). This is different than what's technically considered a 'possession' because a 'possession' would be this number minus offensive rebounds. For this type of analysis you get a more clear picture of actual rates by considering an offensive rebound to be a start of a opportunity instead of a continuation of the previous one.
So with that said, here's the percentage of offensive opportunities in which we've attempted a 3 by year.
2019-2020: 32.6%
2018-2019: 28.6%
2017-2018: 27.9%
2016-2017: 25.7%
2015-2016: 21.7%
2014-2015: 26.7%
2013-2014: 26.9%
2012-2013: 24.2%
2011-2012: 22.1%
2010-2011: 20.0%
2009-2010: 22.1%
2008-2009: 21.2%
2007-2008: 20.6%
2006-2007: 22.4%
2005-2006: 24.5%
2004-2005: 25.7%
2003-2004: 28.1%
2002-2003: 23.7%
2001-2002: 21.6%
Breaking that down by coach over that span:
Rob Senderoff (9th season): 25.7% Roughly 1 out of 4 opportunities is a three attempt.
Geno Ford (3 seasons): 21.2% Just over 1 out of 5 opportunities is a three attempt.
Jim Christian (6 seasons): 24.1% Just under 1 out of 4 opportunities is a three attempt.
Stan Heath (1 season): 21.6% Just over 1 out of 5 opportunities is a three attempt.
So my big takeaways from this.
1. Sendy's teams do shoot threes more often than the previous 3 coaches.
2. Christians' teams were not far behind. Over 100 opportunities Sendy's teams would only attempt 1.6 more threes than JC's.
3. This years team is shooting threes much more frequently than any team over this span. Roughly 1 out 3 opportunities is a three. Small sample size though, so we'll see how that plays out.
Now let's look outside of the KSU bubble. This isn't a Sendy trend but more of a reflection of how the game has evolved. Specifically looking at last season here's the MAC rankings.
1. Akron: 35.8% (Akron was actually attempting more than 1 three per every 3 opportunities! That's a lot).
2. UB: 32.5%
3. Miami: 32.5%
4. Toledo: 32.5%
5. Kent: 28.6% (We're a clear tier below the top tier)
6. WMU: 27.4%
7. CMU: 27.1%
8. BG: 26.2%
9. OU: 24.6%
10. NIU: 24.2%
11. BSU: 23.0%
12. EMU: 15.1%
Average: 27.6%
So from this it looks like we were fairly balanced in terms of 3 point volume. I'll be curious to see if we maintain our current rate of 32.6 or if we regress closer to the typical rate for a Sendy team. We could be seeing Sendy adjusting his offensive strategy.
Lastly, the final thing I like to look at to really grasp if we're shooting too many three's or not is how many points are we scoring per 3 point opportunity vs. 2 point opportunity. For this, I lump opportunities ended in a 2 point attempt and free throws together and call all of these '2 point opportunities' as the vast majority of shooting fouls occur on a two point attempt or on an attacking dribble. Also, I credit all points accumulated off free throws to the 2 point opportunity side because the vast majority of and-one's come on two point shots as well.
Right now Kent is averaging 0.97 points per three point opportunity vs. 1.14 points per two point opportunity. Compared to last season Kent averaged 1.01 points per three point opportunity vs. 1.09 points per two point opportunity. 1.01 per three attempt was 5th in the MAC last year and our rate was 5th in the MAC last year. So last year we were seemingly pretty well balanced.
I think it's too early to pull concrete conclusions from these numbers so I'll let you all draw your own conclusions. If we're still attempting threes over 30% of the time and still scoring under 1 point per attempt by the time the MAC season comes around then I'll probably be in the camp that we're shooting too many. For now, it's just something interesting to see how it plays out.
