(11-19-2019 09:56 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-19-2019 01:07 AM)Crayton Wrote:  5 Most Common Combinations (teams not listed in rank order)
21.16% LSU & Clemson & Ohio St & Oklahoma
14.62% Georgia & LSU & Clemson & Ohio St
11.08% LSU & Clemson & Penn State & Ohio St
8.64% Alabama & LSU & Clemson & Ohio St
5.75% LSU & Clemson & Ohio St & Baylor

Good work. To me, the most significant thing that happened over the weekend was -thanks to the Georgia win and Baylor loss- that the odds of two SEC teams making it to the playoffs went up significantly.

Rounding down on the percentages of individual combinations, it looks like the SEC getting 2 teams jumped from 13% to 23%. The most common 3-SEC scenario (Alabama, LSU, and Georgia) increased from 0.33% to 0.44%... exceedingly unlikely, but fun to mention.

(11-19-2019 10:59 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  What are the playoff chances of 12-1 Clemson?

It looks like of the 10,000 simulations all 8805 Clemson playoff appearance occur in one of the 8818 times they go undefeated. Championship weekend I'll start a new thread to examine counter-factuals (What if Cincinnati beat OSU; What if Oregon beat Auburn; etc)