(11-05-2019 04:29 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-05-2019 03:30 PM)1845 Bear Wrote:  

(11-05-2019 09:04 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  As I see it, Ohio St, Penn St, Minnesota, LSU, Alabama, Clemson, and Baylor are all in “win and in” scenarios. It would be very difficult to deny a playoff berth to one of these schools in they are undefeated and conference champs.

Georgia is similarly in a win and in scenario. Hard to see a 1 loss SEC champ left out.

Oregon, Utah, and Oklahoma all need to win out and get help by having teams above them lose.

Who can’t afford a loss:
Oregon
Utah
Oklahoma
Georgia
Clemson
Baylor

Clemson gets lumped in here due to the overall weakness of the ACC. A 1 loss non-champ, particularly if they are LSU, Alabama, Ohio St, or Penn St, definitely gets in over them due to SOS.

Baylor is in here too because the human and computer elements are both down on them and they lack the name brand appeal of some of the others in the hunt. Splitting two games with Oklahoma does not imbue a lot of confidence in the Bears.

The other 5 can still sneak into the playoff with a loss right now but it will be far trickier than if undefeated.

There you have it—the 2019 CFP race is down to 11 teams.

I’d make a couple changes:

1- Minnesota is in the can’t afford a loss scenario as much as Bu is. Negligible non-con and backloaded schedule.

2- As defending champs Clemson can afford a close loss. They’d win a beauty pageant against all in the can’t afford a loss group except maybe OU or UGA.

3- OU and UGA winning out likely gets in with brand bias and are likely the top two “cant afford a loss team” in any head to head beauty pageant between that remaining group. OU would have either avenged the KSU loss beating all they played or gone 2-0 against BU, UT, or ISU in addition to beating UCLA in noncon and winning the rest of their games against a deep Big 12. UGA would have won the SEC with a victory over LSU or Bama.

I totally disagree with you with Clemson. For one- if the loss is to Wake Forest- WF would win the division and Clemson would be a 11-1 non champion. nope. The ACC is so bad that Clemson can't afford it.

1- If Wake had another loss Clemson has a shot again. Wake isn’t so good they wouldn’t be at risk of upset.

2- If all their remaining games Wake would probably be the most damaging to lose as it prevents a division or league title