(10-08-2019 09:23 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-07-2019 10:37 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  

(10-07-2019 09:57 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Seven very solid teams in the American this year (and Tulsa and Houston will perhaps be better than their likely eventual losing records will suggest).

But my gut tells me Boise runs the table (the remaining schedule is very manageable) and, at 13-0, gets the NY6 bid (would be deserving, too, as this seems a very good Boise team).

Too much parity in the AAC. I feel no team will be undefeated at year's end.

Wildcard scenario: Boise has one loss, no American team is undefeated and 12-0 App State plays on New Year's Day. Would be big for the Belt.

Bill Dazzle
May Ginger Baker RIP

How about these 3 scenarios:

Undefeated Boise 13-0, best win is BYU or 6-6 FSU

versus either of the following three hypotheticals:

12-1 Cincinnati, only loss to top-4 Ohio State
12-1 Tulane, only loss to top-4 Auburn
12-1 Navy, only loss to Memphis, but has a win over top-10 Notre Dame
Any of these champs would have 2-3 wins over ranked AAC opponents.

I don't think Boise gets the nod over Navy or Cincinnati unless they're blowing everyone out. They might get in over Tulane on name brand alone.

I see that Aresco is already beating the drum about the strength of the AAC, and that a one-loss AAC champ should get in over an unbeaten Boise, but .... that is very wishful thinking, as in "it ain't happening". Here's why:

1) Boise has a very strong track record in NY6 games, and like it or not, track record matters. The CFP doesn't want to put a G5 in and see them get whacked badly, and Boise has a strong history of good performance.

2) Boise is a bigger brand name than all of those schools, even Navy.

3) Cincy and Tulane losses to Auburn and Ohio State are strong from a "good loss" POV, but weak from another: The CFP could easily say "well, you had your chance against NY6-level competition, and came up sorely lacking, so no need to give you another chance".

So, no one loss AAC is jumping an unbeaten Boise. But, the good news is, both SMU and Memphis are also unbeaten, so they would get strong consideration if they run the table. And, Boise is unlikely to go unbeaten, so the AAC is likely to get the NY6 spot anyway.

Overall, I would say about a 75% chance that the AAC champ gets the NY6 slot this year.

As to Boise being a "bigger brand" than Navy (I assume you mean for football)..... Both Houston and Navy, if I'm not mistaken, have far more tradition than Boise and both have enjoyed lots of success over the years. They are much more "long-standing" brands than Boise. Houston has done some impressive work over the years and with lots of name coaches. Navy ... major tradition. Obviously, Boise has been an exciting brand for about 10 to 12 years. I guess it depends on how one defines "bigger brand."

Also, I feel Boise has a good shot at going undefeated this season.

Agree that no one-loss AAC is jumping an unbeaten Boise (unless there is something we can't foresee).