(12-19-2019 04:16 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(12-19-2019 04:10 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(12-19-2019 02:43 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(12-19-2019 01:34 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(12-19-2019 01:14 PM)stever20 Wrote:  and then you add in the postseason and it's up to 1948-1736. 212 inning difference.....

Also there's this thing of recent performance.

He's been injured (non-baseball for one). He's also making half of what Cole and Stras are getting.


MadBum currently isn't as good as the other two. But Aging is a big misnomer.

It's technically a misnomer, yes, in that Bumgarner just turned 30. But the misnomer is kind of a euphemism for the question, "Did he peak 4 or 5 years ago?" -- in contrast to Cole, whose trajectory looks like he's just hitting his peak now.

That would be a fairer question - or was last year an abberatation or a sign of the future?

His ERA was still under 4.

Cole has been brilliant the last two years - how long will that sustain?

Cole has a lot fewer innings on his arm though compared to Madbum. You can't discount that at all...

Geez, we all agree that Cole is better and is at his best while MadBum is below his peak. The important question is whether MadBum can sustain his 2019 performance. If he stays healthy that's a pretty good bet. So, is he (or is his arm) too old to stay healthy? Everybody gets worked up about his injury history but his two most significant injuries were due to freak accidents - not baseball wear and tear. It's completely reasonable to think that 2019 was a return to fitness and that he can go at least another 3 years of 3ish WAR (at least). If so, he'll have been worth the contract. If he can do better (either sustain for another year or two, or generate better than 3 WAR/yr), he'll be considered a bargain.