(10-11-2019 02:12 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-11-2019 01:50 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  

(10-11-2019 01:04 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-11-2019 01:00 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  That's right - I quickly scanned an article that implied he was given a 3 yr extension but it's just 3 years left on contract.

I have a feeling if same thing happens next season, he won't be as lucky.

That's a feeling shared by more than a few Dodgers fans.

It's a guess but I think the FO is saying, "We know we didn't give you all the tools you needed this year so we're gonna cut you some slack." Of course, if I'm right that means the FO thinks they CAN give him those tools next year...

First order of business is arb eligible guys: Pederson, Seager, and Bellinger all in line for big increases and several others who will get decent raises. They'll still be relative bargains but it's a non-trivial hit on payroll - well over $25MM increase. And the FAs they'll lose (Hill and Ryu are the biggest) cut a little over $40MM. So here's where the rubber meets the road. If you sign all the arb eligible guys (and they might not - there are a couple of obvious non-tender guys like Yimi Garcia but that's small potatoes) you're going to be reasonably close to the threshold. They could stay under if they "improve from within" but I think that's BS and it's hard to imagine the FO thinking the fanbase will buy that. It's pretty obvious what LA missed out on at the trade deadline. Real improvement (the kind that allows them to say to Roberts that they've given him better tools) requires exceeding the luxury threshold and/or trading significant resources. Not much trade target talk yet but I'd love to see a run at Rendon or Gerrit Cole. Acquiring either of those guys makes a trade possible as well, but still wouldn't be close to coming under the threshold. This is going to be a "show me" offseason.

They have to do something with the rotation. You can't go into it with Buehler, Kershaw, Maeda, and the kids. Also with the bullpen.

Just in the existing contracts you have 88 million obligated towards the tax. Add in 15 million for insuarance/etc that everyone gets and you're at 103 of 208 million. The Arbitration estimates for Pederson, Seagler, Bellinger, Muncy, Taylor, Hernandez, and Urias around 44 million. So that leaves only 60 million left. And they have no bad contracts really to deal to a moron team.

Total estimated arb bill is $53MM, but what I was expressing above was the delta between this year and last (I think it's between 25 and 30 but that's not really the point). What you are doing is basically echoing my point: They can't make credible moves without spending significant money.

I assume you are referring to Urias as one of "the kids" but I think he's quite a bit more established than May/Gonsolin, so I get it if they're counting on him. But to your other point that just makes the bullpen that much weaker. I'm ok with Buehler as a #1, Kershaw as a #3, Maeda as a #4, and Urias as a #5. But I don't see where May or Gonsolin fit in unless one of them figures a way to displace Urias back to the pen. No way Maeda starts the season in the pen (even though you can make the argument he makes the team better that way). But no matter how I slice it, the team needs to acquire a strong #2, or a stronger #1 and Buehler as #2.