(02-26-2020 07:02 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  

(02-26-2020 12:29 AM)westsidewolf1989 Wrote:  Interesting debate, moderating blunders aside - ...Bernie definitely got knocked backed several times by other candidates, IMO. I thought Klobuchar did the best, personally - stayed on her points and tried to keep the debate focused on who can beat Trump. Biden did his best job to act angry and string random words together - he actually did have an ok night and held up his end of the “tag team against Bernie” side. Pete had some good blows on Sanders but also came off as an annoying prick by constantly talking while other candidates were talking. Much better debate from Bloomberg, but he still doesn’t look very comfortable debating to me. Warren’s sole purpose seems to be to attack Bloomberg - I guess that can at least by something to hang her hat on when she drops out. I guess Steyer is still hanging around in the event he beats Biden/Bernie in SC or finishes second? Not sure I can see that happening at this point.

In an interesting geographical twist, four of the eight remaining candidates have their home states voting on Super Tuesday. Obviously Sanders will be around, but will Warren, Klobuchar or Steyer stay in to try and see if they can beat Bernie on their home turf? If there are more than three or four candidates left after Saturday, I think Bernie will be in decent shape to win the nomination outright - he seems to be first or second in every state and can probably roll that momentum over the next couple weeks in March.

I actually think Biden will win South Carolina. He did enough last night to give him one more fighting chance to actually win a state. Maybe that's all he wants - to win one state. And then he'll just concede age has gotten the best of him (even though he's younger than Bernie and Bloomberg).

No one is getting out before Super Tuesday. But they'll drop like flies after that. I thought Buttigieg might get a little more momentum, but honestly he had his worst debate last night and came across as desperate for the first time to me.

I'll assume Klobuchar has a chance in Minnesota. The Boston Globe just endorsed Warren, and I think she'll win that state. Steyer has no chance of winning California.

I think after Super Tuesday it will be Bernie, Warren and Bloomberg. And that's it. And even Warren sometimes seems like she's just auditioning to be Bernie's VP and doesn't want to go after him with any gusto.

What a barfy debate to watch. The moderators had zero control and the candidates were even more pushy than usual. The Nevada debate moderators did a great job of allowing some candidates to have a direct back-and-forth while without allowing just two candidates to dominate the talking time for extended periods. Last night's moderators hardly allowed any direct back-and-forth between candidates after the first couple exchanges. And the 2nd half of the debate was almost worthless since all the candidates on the stage are almost identical for a lot of the issues discussed.

Biden had his least-bad debate performance at the perfect time. He should win the senate race in SC handily by beating all the other Bidens. That should continue to shore up his support in the Super Tuesday states. He won't have a great Super Tuesday, but it will be better than anyone not named Bernie. Biden does not look like someone who can win debates against Trump. He's not the same debater that did well against Paul Ryan. If Biden loses SC, which seems unlikely, he has to drop out.

Bernie got a little lucky with the crap moderators. Everytime someone tried to engage him in a back-and-forth the moderators wouldn't allow it. Bernie is a solid debater so he wouldn't have fallen on his face like Bloomberg. But Bernie still hasn't given a good answer for how he can afford everything he wants to do and he still hasn't given a good answer as to why he promised to release all his medical records and instead just released a couple letters. The other candidates and the moderators haven't really done a good job pointing out that he hasn't been answering some of the questions. He'll likely come in a solid 2nd in SC and come out of Super Tuesday with the most delegates.

Bloomberg sucked again. He tried to be funny and was possibly the least funny person I have ever seen. His presence in the race will likely help Bernie on Super Tuesday, as he is mostly taking voters away from Biden (and to a lesser extent Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Warren, and Steyer). Sad that he can buy his way to 10-15% of the democratic voters when his 2 debate performances have been completely brutal. Maybe he will flop in tonight's town hall.

Buttigieg didn't do enough to change his trajectory and looked bad talking over other candidates. He was good when he wasn't talking over people. I think he and Warren are the best candidates to debate Trump. Both are disciplined debaters who can turn a question around. He might stay in it in case Bernie/Biden have health problems, but I really don't see any path to the nomination for him unless he miraculously comes in 3rd and above 15% in SC. There is no evidence such a surge will happen and I don't think it will. His fundraising is also lagging (they set a $13 million goal before Super Tuesday and are only 40% there). He hurts Biden and Warren by staying in the race. He could probably make his biggest mark by dropping out and asking his voters to go to either Biden (likely his rural supporters) or Warren (his suburban, more educated supporters).

Warren was good and unlike most of the candidates didn't yell or talk over people. But like Buttigieg, I didn't see her do anything to change the trajectory of the race. Like Buttigieg, a strong 3rd in SC above 15% is something she really needs, but there is no evidence it will happen for her. Her national polling is better than Buttigieg due to her name recognition. She's probably drawing about equally away from Bernie and Biden. That probably hurts Biden more though if she drags him below 20% in some Super Tuesday states. She'll pick up some delegates on Super Tuesday (especially with MA voting), but I'm not sure its enough to do much. She must really not want Bernie to win, even though they are ideologically close.

Steyer has never excited or impressed me. His tie choice is weird. He spent big in IA, NH, and NV to no avail. He seems to be buying a little more influence in SC, but he has zero path to any delegates on Super Tuesday. He should have dropped out after IA ... and NH ... and NV. I'm not sure why he ever got in the race and I'm not sure why he is still around.

Klobuchar was fine, but like Buttigieg and Warren, did nothing to change her trajectory. Her trajectory is even lower than both of them and she will get crushed in SC and has zero path to anything on Super Tuesday other than Minnesota. If Minnesota wasn't part of Super Tuesday, she probably would have dropped out after NV. Her biggest effect on the race was keeping Buttigieg from beating Bernie in NH.

I am interested to see who is on the debate stage at the next debate. I think Buttigieg would be fantastic in a debate with fewer opponents and it would be particularly fun to watch him and Bernie with longer responses. But at this point, I'd be surprised if he is still around. Same with Warren. Biden is the opposite. I think his weaknesses would really be exposed in a debate with only 3-4 candidates.