(02-11-2020 09:44 PM)mrbig Wrote:  I don’t see how anyone can see these results and think Bernie is best-positioned. He has a ceiling in the Democratic Party. He’s losing close to half his support from 2016 because half his support was anti-Hillary, not pro-Bernie. The only way Bernie wins is if the center-left wild to consolidate.

Feeling good about my predictions overall but I didn’t see Klobuchar’s late surge taking so much away from Warren.

538 has the following:

(https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/28-...hampshire/)

With:

numbers that follow are % chance of outright 1st round majority in the following order (Sanders, Buttigieg, None)

Sanders narrow win tonite (4 points or less) -- 48% 2% 27%
Sanders narrow win w/ Buttigieg 2nd -- 41% 2% 27%

1st, 2nd, 3rd of Sanders, Buttigieg, Klobuchar 53% 2% 26%

Buttigieg had to actually win straight out to up his odds with any significance.