(02-04-2020 02:49 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  Predictions:

if Biden is at 16% or less and in fourth, he is going to be in deep trouble.

if Warren scores a 2nd place, this might breathe some life into that campaign.

if Buttigieg rolls at 2nd or higher, or a close 3rd, he will become the darling of the 'NeverBernie' crowd.

if Sanders wins, this and NH will give him a huge 1-2 punch.. If The Bern nabs Iowa as a #1 he will be the frontrunner with 'the big mo' (as Papa Bush termed it)

I wasn't going to do predictions, but now you'e hooked me. I agree with Fountains that these are pretty good.

Biden - I think he ends up below 16% and in 4th (as you suggest). It hurts him a lot if the same thing happens in New Hampshire. If he can claw into the top 3 in New Hampshire, he can probably at least hold together his South Carolina firewall and hope to make waves on Super Tuesday based on name recognition. Problem is he is pretty tapped out of money. I think he ends up in 4th in New Hampshire and quickly starts dropping in the Nevada/South Carolina polls.

Warren - I think she ends up in 3rd, a few points behind Buttiegieg. She'll basically tread water with that result. She has the money to continue on and probably ends up in 3rd in New Hampshire.

Buttigieg - I think he loses the Iowa 1st vote by a couple points to Bernie, is very close to Bernie in the final vote (post-realignment), and wins the state delegate allocation (based on his strength in rural areas). He gets enough bounce to get at least 2nd in New Hampshire. After New Hampshire, he really needs Klobuchar and either Warren or Biden to drop out. He could really, really use some high profile endorsements heading into Nevada and South Carolina (particularly from a few minorities). If those things happen post-NH, I agree that he becomes the most viable anti-Bernie and we are off to the races. I'd find a debate with Bernie, Buttigieg, and Bloomberg to be fascinating.

Bernie - As I said above, I think he wins the 1st vote by a few percent. He has a core base of support that really loves him. But many of his supporters and surrogates are openly hostile to the other candidates and he's not many people's 2nd choice. If the anti-Bernie forces can consolidate quickly enough, I don't think he can win. If Warren drops out before Super Tuesday and endorses Bernie, that is his best chance. But I still think a lot of Warren supporters would move to Buttigieg over Bernie. Bernie is the dem version of 2016 Trump. He can be defeated if the anti-him forces consolidate quickly enough. If not, Bernie can win the nomination.