(08-22-2019 10:15 AM)YNot Wrote:  

(08-22-2019 10:02 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(08-22-2019 08:47 AM)zoocrew Wrote:  

(08-22-2019 07:51 AM)TerryD Wrote:  

(08-21-2019 02:37 PM)zoocrew Wrote:  If I’m ND and it’s 5-1-2 I’m joining the ACC yesterday

You are not ND and you are not looking at it like it does/will.

They will see two wild card spots and think that as good as or (likely) better than the current playoff arrangement.

That means it can stay indy and have two spots available to it.

Staying a football indy is a prime goal of ND, not just a byproduct. It is extremely important to ND.

Why would expanding the playoffs and adding two wild cards make the ACC more attractive to ND football than the current set up?

ND is only going to join a football conference if it is forced to against its will because the playoffs are restricted to only conference champs and there is no mechanism other than that for ND to be eligible for the playoffs.

Not claiming to be ND or arguing why they’re independent, not sure why you deflected to that, but you’re dead wrong that 2 spots is better than 4 spots.

In a 5-1-2 You’re likely getting 3 or 4 auto bids that wouldn’t have been in otherwise.

For example:

Auto bids:

11-2 UCF secures a bid
10-3 Oregon secures a bid
11-2 Georgia secures a bid
12-1 Oklahoma secures a bid
12-1 Ohio State secures a bid
12-1 Florida State secures a bid

Teams fighting for wildcards:

11-1 Clemson - Lost to Florida State reg season
11-1 Penn State - lost to Ohio State reg season
12-1 Texas - Went 1-1 with OU in reg season and B12 champ
12-1 Alabama - Lost to Georgia in SEC Champ

If just 2 upsets happen ND cant even get in with 12-0 so they’ll be going undefeated just for a shot. 11-1 and you’re immediately eliminated unlike with what we have now.

Saying 5-1-2 is better than straight 4 for ND sounds like denial to me.

I may be wrong, but I don't think Terry was arguing that a 5-1-2 system would increase ND's playoff chances over the current CFP system. At least I hope not, because you are right, it wouldn't, it would hurt their chances.

But his point seems to be that this decrease in chances to make the playoffs will not be enough to cause ND to give up football independence, because Notre Dame will only do that if the playoffs are such that ND has NO chance to make the playoffs if they aren't in a conference, and 5-1-2 would not do that.

Whether he's right about that or not I don't know, but that's his position, as I read it.

That's silly. Expansion to 8 teams would absolutely increase Notre Dame's chances to reach the CFP.

Right now, Notre Dame MUST finish ranked in the top-4. Period.

In an expanded scenario, Notre Dame must simply finish as the second place at large, non-champ. Most years that means Notre Dame would need to finish ranked between #6-8. It is easier to finish ranked in the top-6 or top-7 or top-8 than it is to finish ranked in the top-4.

Notre Dame likely must finish undefeated or as the highest-ranked 1-loss team to finish ranked in the top-4. There is more breathing room for a 1-loss Notre Dame and even a possibility that a 2-loss Notre Dame reaches the CFP in the 8-team scenario.

Now, you can argue that Notre Dame's chances to reach the playoff would be even better if they were to join a conference, but playoff expansion helps independent Notre Dame - it doesn't hurt them.

Well ND's chances depend on the nature of the "expanded scenario". For example, if my straight 8 proposal is adopted, then yes, obviously ND has much better playoff chances than it does under the current "straight 4" CFP system. Being ranked in the top 8 is easier than being ranked in the top 4. An example is 2015 - that year, ND finished ranked #8 in the CFP and thus would have made a straight 8 playoff but did not make the CFP. Under S8, Notre Dame would have made the playoffs twice the past five years, instead of once.

But systems that lock up spots for conference champs complicate things. For example yes, in a 5-1-2 system, Notre Dame can make the playoffs by being ranked anywhere from #1 to #8. But, on the other hand, ND can also get knocked out of the playoffs *even if* they are ranked in the top 8, because the auto-bid could kick them out.

Look at 2015 again: Notre Dame finished #8, but would NOT have made the playoffs that year. The reason is because the top-ranked G5 champ was ranked outside the top 8, and so would have booted ND out.

That's a big difference. Heck, under 5-1-2, Notre Dame could even be kicked out if they were as highly-ranked as #4. Imagine these rankings, post CCGs, where an "*" indicates the conference champ. Clemson, Alabama, and USC were all unbeaten, but lost their CCGs. They remain ranked #1 - #3 in the final rankings:

1) Clemson 12-1
2) Alabama 12-1
3) USC 12-1
4) Notre Dame 10-2
5) Georgia 10-3*
6) Miami 10-3*
7) UCLA 10-3*
8) Ohio State 10-3*
9) Oklahoma 10-3*
15) UCF* - highest ranked G5 team.

In this scenario, Notre Dame, at #4, misses the playoffs. Heck, in this scenario, ND would miss the playoffs if they were ranked #3!

Is that likely? No, but certainly possible.

So yes, in 5-1-2, ND can make the playoffs even if they are ranked #5, #6, #7, or #8, whereas in the current CFP, that is impossible. On the other hand, under 5-1-2, ND could miss the playoffs even if they are ranked #3 or #4, which is impossible under the current CFP.

In the end, I agree with you, on balance, the 5-1-2 scenarios that are better than the current CFP are more likely than the ones that are worse, so I stand corrected in my earlier assertion. Though I will say the practical difference is uncertain, because in the 5 years of the CFP, both scenarios - 5-1-2 and current CFP - would have produced the exact same number of playoff bids for ND, one.

Also, this exercise indicates that the type of 8-team system matters greatly. ND clearly has a better chance for the playoffs under "straight 8" than under 5-1-2. We even have a practical example of that: In 2015, the Irish would have made the playoffs under "straight 8", but not 5-1-2.

So I would bet that if this issue of expansion comes up, ND will lobby for straight 8, not 5-1-2.