(06-29-2019 07:07 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Actual Criteria

1. ESPN suggests they consider
2. The school is willing to join (an All Sports invitation is more likely to be accepted than a FB only)
3. ESPN approves their invitation
4. ESPN agrees to pay full share for that school

Schools should have a budget north of $40M a year for Athletics, preferably $50M. They should have reasonably competitive Football and Basketball. 3 Bowl games, an NCAA and 2 NIT appearances would be a fair minimum for an All Sport candidate.

BYU, Army and Boise State have the name cache.

BYU and Colorado State have budgets at or very near the top of the AAC (from DoE Equity in Athletics ... the one accurate source)

FIU ODU Fresno State and Rice have budgets not far from AAC. Everyone else simply has too far to climb to be in the picture.

I would add that a public school needs an undergraduate enrollment of at least 15,000 (use DoE Equity in Athletics numbers, as most schools use an inflated number that includes part time, non-traditional and even graduate students to advertise a larger number). For a private school much harder to say, but the evidence suggests they can be 1/3rd the size of a public school to compete head up.

I don't see a candidate that satisfies all the conditions. Army and BYU would be slam dunks if they said yes, and that is not going to happen. Same for Boise State since they need a better home for Olympics than the options available. Colorado State would have to be All Sports to accept which I doubt the AAC would offer them, and you are getting borderline on ESPN approval. Air Force would not move without Colorado State, and the also need a better Olympics home option.

Rice adds nothing, and Houston sits on that market. That FIU makes a couple criteria is amazing, but I think we can forget them too. Fresno State would be insanity for all parties. That leaves ODU. Basketball is similar level as Colorado State. But football is start up and below average, not worth picking up. And if it's Basketball then VCU makes more sense. But the AAC doesn't need a 12th basketball school.

Process of elimination: stand at 11. Of course offer BYU, Army and Boise State the spot, but expect a thanks but no thanks response.

ODU is $40 million north at the AAC spending already. Upgrading their facilities including adding more seats. Basketball fits in with the NIT and NCAA tournament. ODU is not a recent startup since it is like 10 years since they restarted. Made a bowl game. Having games on CBSSports does not help them attract better players. ODU wouold be a good investment for AAC to add for a 12th all sports member.