AC
First the MAC could show the NCAA the plan to get into compliance. I have stated multiple times, if the NCAA shows it is working on getting in compliance, there would be no issue with the waiver until another team is added. The AAC basically has stated there are no plans to get in compliance because we don't want too. Thus thy I think the NCAA could easily deny the waiver.

If the AAC requests the FBS Conferences to change the rule, and the conferences vote against it. I have a hard time seeing the NCAA then granting a waiver because the AAC still refuses to add a 12th team. If they offer a 12th team and that team had issues preventing them from joining until 2022, I would see the waiver granted. I think if the Aresco would have just simply stated the AAC would address the need to add a 12th team if required to meet the rules if the CCG are not changed. He basically stated the AAC will do what is in the AAC best interest no matter if the majority of the conferences vote against the rule change. That is why I see a waiver not occurring without a plan to get into compliance.

I think AAC could do a whole lot better than Aresco. He tends to either show his hand to early or vastly overplays it. Some times it is better to let subordinates or proxies go public and keep quiet. He reminds of Biden, apparently everybody likes him but they know the guy is a gaffe blowhard that will go off at the wrong time.

Note - Biden is an example comparison not saying if his politics are correct or incorrect.