(06-29-2019 08:54 AM)loki_the_bubba Wrote:  I've finally come up with a scenario where there could actually be four promotions to the P%. It's very very unlikely. But in some scenario either Texas OR Oklahoma decides to leave the other behind. The remainer wants to save the B12, not blow it up. Let's say it's Oklahoma. The B12 is now at nine. The TV landscape six years from now is sufficiently different that they are now incented to go to 12. They pick up Houston, Cincy, and one of the UxF twins. If it's Texas remaining they probably take both Florida schools and leave Houston out. If the school that leaves is Texas going indy we stop there. If the leaving school is joining a conference it unbalances that conference. They may grab a school from a weaker P5 (they're the stronger they got either UT or OU). The conference that gets raided adds a fourth G5. Who that school is depends on who's been raided.

Likelihood: 0.01%

The Big 12 isn't salvageable for OU if UT leaves. Barely salvageable for UT if OU leaves, and even in that scenario would probably require the Big 12 bringing in at least 1 or 2 teams from existing P5 conferences, e.g., Arkansas switching conferences with Oklahoma, and that is so unlikely it's not even worth considering.

Still, the possibility of either UT or OU leaving the Big 12 in the near term is very overblown by rumormongers, IMO. UT doesn't need the money, they'll move only if they see very good non-monetary reasons, and I don't think any other conference wants to bring in OU without UT and then see UT go to one of their competitors.

The best scenario for any of the other power conferences is to bring in UT; the second-best scenario for any of these conferences is for UT to stay where they are and not make another conference stronger.