(06-28-2019 09:01 PM)33laszlo99 Wrote:  

(06-28-2019 04:50 PM)usffan Wrote:  

(06-28-2019 04:38 PM)loki_the_bubba Wrote:  

(06-28-2019 04:06 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  A P5 invitation to a G5 member is not impossible, but very, very unlikely unless there are shifts within the P5 (creating a P4). Assuming Texas/Oklahoma hold the cards on whether another realignment cycle begins, it's quite possible the P5 membership remains in tact through the next decade. The Big 12 is still being paid handsomely on the power level, and there has been nothing (yet) to indicate that Texas/Oklahoma would want to become a secondary decision maker in a new conference. While the PAC has had its noticeable share of bad PR stories with regards to organization, it is still unlikely that any of them try and move given the academic and historical associations that many of them share. The ACC has a GOR, which discourages any departures there. It would be a huge shock if any member willingly decided to leave either the B1G or SEC. Notre Dame is also very pleased with their arrangement, so they aren't looking to start making waves now.

Within the G5, there are also only a select number of programs that will likely be considered for a potential move-up, and they include BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, UCF and USF. Everyone else outside of that exclusive group is likely to be on the outside looking in.

A P5 to P4 transition would make it even harder for a move-up. In fact I believe it would be a contraction. Schools like Baylor or Iowa State could would be on the outside looking in.

FTFY

I think you're both right. GoldenWarrior11 said (which reflects my own thoughts) that it's EXTREMELY unlikely that any P5 conference adds anybody from outside. And I agree with you - any significant raiding would likely lead to a situation where some schools are no longer in what would now be viewed as a P4. In that event, those schools would likely raid the current G5 conferences (likely the AAC and/or the MWC depending on who those schools are) to create the remnants of that remaining conference. In other words, the road map that led to the creation of the AAC. That new conference would be P5 in name only until such time that the CFP changes again.

In other words, it's impossible to envision a situation where a non-P5 team gets elevated to the top tier. Louisville, Rutgers and WVU got the last raft off of the Titanic.

USFFan

It's true 'fan. How we talk about realignment these days seems to depend on one's view of the stability of the Big XII, post 2024. If you believe that Texas, Oklahoma and "the rest" will all want to continue as members of the Big XII, then, nevermind. But if one suspects that the fat-cats of that conference will abandon ship, then there is much to gossip about.
I think the top teams will leave the Big XII in respose to the financial incentives presented by the two leading conferences and by the media companies. Even those who say the Big XII is solid for the long haul have doubts, which keeps them engaged here.
So what happens to the Big XII if Oklahoma and Texas depart? There are still serious financial benfits to keeping the Big XII afloat. That conference, regardless of its membership is designated by the NCAA as an "autonomy conference." They can offer cost of attendance money to recruits, and there are other expenses beyond educational costs that they can cover, which G5 (so called) conferences cannot. They will remain together in order to collect a big bag of exit fees from the emigrees. There are post season bowl games whose contracts specify Big XII teams. Other G5 schools may be attracted to these benefits. So for a while, the Big XII will be squattin' in tall cotton.
But they will eventually need to seek a media contract for a conference that no longer includes: Texas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Texas A&M, Colorado or Missouri (now there's a conference!). They will have some lovely G5 replacement schools. But given that most of the newbies may be AAC renegades, they become the new AAC, the almost P5. The bowl contracts wiil eventually expire, the NCAA will reconsider "autonomy" based on athletic budgets, and we will be arguing about autobids for the P4 champions.
What do you believe about the Big XII?

Based on the way the Pac-16 scenario fell apart (no need to rehash, but there's plenty of reports about the political wrangling within Texas to dictate which schools were involved) coupled with what Todge has written about the full details of the Big XII's rules, I have real trouble seeing a scenario where Texas and/or Oklahoma actually get poached. I think both like having people speculate about them, but they pretty well get to retain special nation status (cough Longhorn Network cough) within a mostly regionally sensible footprint (WVU being the outlier). And with the way ESPN and Fox shut down their play at expansion the last time, I don't see them adding anybody when their contracts come up the next time. I know people will say "what about the Arizona schools," but they both rely far more on California than Texas for students and alumni support, so I don't think that's practical.

USFFan