(06-27-2019 01:56 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(06-27-2019 01:44 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(06-27-2019 01:07 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(06-27-2019 12:44 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  The Navy AD never actually said the contract will stay the exact same and just divide it 11 ways instead of 12. His quotes were

"The ratio of interest by ESPN on the AAC, it was overwhelming in football. … I don’t think losing UConn is going to affect us to any degree of any significance.”

Navy AD Gladchuk: "It means there’s one less distribution to make. It means we get a little more of the revenue sharing. Anyone that comes in has got to be a plus rather than a fiscal detriment.”

"I don’t think we bring in anybody that doesn’t add value. That’ll be my vote. I don’t think we fill to fill. I have no interest in that.

In the first quote he didn't say he doesn't think the TV deal will change at all, just that he doesn't think it will affect the league to any significant degree (likely meaning decreasing the payout per team). The second quote about the 1 less distribution to make I think he's actually referring to the league distributions as a whole and not just the TV deal (although to be fair it's not super clear). That's not wrong the G5 pool along with tournament credits and every other league distribution would go up with 1 less team to give it to. The third quote is just the likely truth, and probably the way ESPN feels as well. I don't think they particularly have the urge to have the AAC add a team just because unless they bring value.

Good analysis.

In a whole bunch of words, he's basically saying what I've been saying - that the Navy AD's comments are too vague for fanboys to have latched on to them as meaning that the total ESPN payout will remain the same, and everyone will now get a raise because it is being divided 11 ways not 12.

The fanboy interpretation may in fact prove to be correct and the 11 remainders may in fact get this "raise", but these vague comments by one AD is not solid evidence to support it, and it defies common sense.

If you want to get really technical I do expect everyone to get a slight "raise" from this move. Not from the TV deal staying the exact same and splitting it 11 ways, but from the TV deal staying on a pro-rated version pretty much the same per team and then splitting the rest of the distributions to 1 less team. Not gonna be some gigantic windfall or anything, but not going to be any real harm either.

I agree with that, which is why I've been careful to say the ESPN money will remain the same per-school. But yes, unless the AAC goes to 12, it stands to reason that stuff like bowl money will now be split fewer ways, meaning more money per school, though as you say not that much.