(06-29-2019 11:45 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(06-29-2019 11:23 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(06-26-2019 09:39 AM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  

(06-26-2019 09:26 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  I think UConn leaving and this Cincy analysis shows the weakness of the new deal Aresco inked with ESPN. One of the hallmarks of a good deal is that a school can't do better on their own. E.g., regarding the B1G and SEC deals, not only could lower level teams like Purdue and Ole Miss not do better by going football indy, Michigan and Alabama couldn't do better either. Both would make less as an indy, much like Notre Dame makes less as an indy than they could in a P5.

But UConn, and probably Cincy, could get paid more going football indy and joining the Big East for other sports.

The Aresco deal was a soft deal. One we waited 7 years for.

I personally think you are making this into something it's not to satisfy you passive-aggression towards the AAC. I have yet to see any scenario where Uconn is actually going to profit from this move.

I don't think they would do it if they didn't think they were going to profit from it. So imagine they've worked out scenarios where they will.

I'd bet that between Big East money, retaining their T3 rights and selling their football, they can get about $9m a year from media, or about $2m more than the Aresco deal.

In seven years, that will pay off the combined $14m in Big East entry and AAC exit fees.

1) But UConn dosesnt the retain their third tier rights. The contract specifically assigns the rights to "ALL varsity" athletic contests to the Big East. The only media rights UConn retained in the BE deal were its local radio rights. The Big East may indeed sell games to SNY---but UConn will only get a 1/11th share of those proceeds----and that only happens if those rights were not part of the FOX deal.

2) The fact that no conference is even remotely interested in adding UConn football tells you that the media rights to its independent deal will be likely be less than the current payout of the lowest paid FBS conference---$400K or less. If it had great value, one of these lower paid conferences would have grabbed them to boost their total payout.

3) You completely ignore how significant the 12 million dollar exit fee and 3.5 million entry fee (15.5 million total) actually is---plus you ignore the fact that UConn will only receive, as a new member, a partial BE conference distribution for several years. That 15.5 million represents almost FIVE years of the average Big East conference distribution (per tax filings). The reduced BE share distribution (due to being a new member) only adds to revenue loss of the exit fees.

4) The move doesnt make sense on the surface---but I suspect it does make sense if there is more to the plan. I think the real financial "value" of the move is driving football off a cliff so it can be downgraded (lower cost) or outright cut (huge savings). When you look at the UConn move to the BE from the prospective of a non-football playing school---there is tremendous value in making the move. You end up playing in a premier basketball conference---that pays more than 4 FBS football playing conferences---without the huge added expense of a football team. When you consider that the BE is universally considered to be a "power" conference in basketball (UConns flagship sport) and that UConn is running a completely unsustainable 40 million dollar annual athletics deficit---the plan makes a heck of a lot of sense both financially and institutionally. But it only makes sense if your long term intention is the downgrading or eliminating of the football program as thats where the real financial benefit lies.

You make some good points here, particularly about the fact that UConn does not get to keep its T3 rights with the Big East either.

Nevertheless, I take UConn at their word that they have not given up at all on the P5 dream, and that requires a very solid investment in FBS football.

Maybe they are thinking booster donations will cover the one-time exit/entry fees, or improved season ticket sales for hoops?

I don't know, only time will tell.