(10-28-2021 11:56 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  Yeah, this post does not answer this once and for all, but it’s not a bad attempt.

I (and others) clearly disagree with your evaluation of childcare issues. I disagree that THE ISSUE you posit is THE ISSUE, unless you’re including a more general career change in that large bucket (otherwise it is as you said, it is one of the thousand issues).

I also disagree that some of the issues are being highlighted because of partisan means - especially here since we haven’t even talked about solutions. Just look at immigration - there are hard numbers behind the drastically reduced number of migrants who have gained legal entry to the country in 2020. How is pointing that out, and how those are lost new employees partisan? There is data that suggests is is a significant issue.

Edit: I’ll also add that I don’t get the chicken or egg angle. When we’re talking about why there is a labor shortage, does it matter what the reason is for the drop in child care services if there are people struggling to find and use the services?

I think the solutions to a number of these problems from the left would be pretty obvious. How would a leftist government solve a lack of j1's? Admit more of them/make it easier/expand them. How do they solve the issue of high cost of daycare? Subsidize it. How do they solve the issue of people not taking available jobs? Raise the wages until they do. I don't mean that in an ugly way, I just think it obvious (as a generalization of the solutions tending towards more collectivism and wealth redistribution as opposed to market solutions that would come from the right).

Lots of the J1's I've seen talked about are like Ski Instructors from Switzerland... where what is most important about their qualifications for that job are that having a ski instructor in Utah from Switzerland adds cache' to the resort... and not that they are any better at teaching skiing than a country boy from Ogden who has been skiing his whole life. That's not a 'need' that I think the government needs to continue to subsidize and IMO heavily favors the wealthy.... both the customers AND the resort owners.

Re: Chicken/egg.... I've seen people note a drop in daycare workers. I've also seen people note a drop in usage of daycare. What I haven't seen is anything demonstrating that the drop in available workers is driving the drop in usage (and not the reverse) any more than in any other industry... or any more than a rise in gas prices might impact someone's decision... especially in that demand for gasoline should be declining, not rising. If such things exist, that's fine and I'm sure they do anecdotally... but I haven't seen it demonstrated that 'in general' or 'on average' and certainly not 'clearly' that there are lots of people who WOULD take jobs if they could get daycare... and they USED to have daycare, but now can't get it because the daycare can't find people to hire. I'd guess (and its purely a swag) that any changes in governmental codes regarding class sizes as a result of COVID have had (or could have) a more significant impact on BOTH supply and demand for employees.

And I'd say taking advantage of COVID, the expansion of flexible schooling and everything else going on to change careers would certainly be reasons why someone who used to work and now isn't just something looking for a solution, but something that ABSOLUTELY doesn't need to be solved. It doesn't even represent a need for more daycare workers etc. They may need more daycare workers once they've changed jobs, but someone in transition shouldn't even be listed as 'looking for a job and needing daycare so they can work'. They ARE going back... just not now... OR because they want a job they really aren't quite qualified for... but the market (if it can't find perfectly qualified people) will eventually adjust down to the skills they can hire.