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(12-24-2018 11:08 AM)BroncoPhilly Wrote:  

(12-24-2018 08:47 AM)gobaseline Wrote:  We agree more than not. You are correct on the internal dynamics.

What we appear to differ on is how it plays out.

The reaction by the Chi-comms is indicative of their perspective. They cheat, lie and steal. They got caught at a very high level and now are embarking on playing “chicken” with Canada. An easy target who wants to deliver on tar sand production to anyone who will pay. China is willing to and the US vacillates. So I can see China intimidating Canada here like they did earlier with the Obama Admin who indicted Chinese for like but out of fear of retaliation never followed through.

However the stakes are higher as this criminal is of much higher rank. The heir to this favored Chinese Communication power. Much to close for comfort in Beijing.

Those in power and that is absolute power, will not give it up, period. The new guard is not interested in playing fair and opening up opportunity for others as “some” in the west idealize. The opportunity is only available for those who toe the line.

The growing middle class is on a strict diet of central committee. Again, toe the line or lose your toes or worse.

I talk to my Chinese colleagues and try and get a gage on things over there. For instance, how many of them play the Chinese stock markets? Not too many, from my sample survey. So who is playing the Shanghai Bourse? Mostly foreigners, apparently. So when we say the Trump tariffs have hurt the Chinese equities, you have to take into account who is being hurt.

Of course Chinese consumers have been hurt-prices are going up, salaries have stopped appreciating and good jobs are less plentiful. They have been hurt by the tariffs, no question.

My gut 'feel' is Xi supports reforms. I think he has reasonably good rapport with Trump and he knows China has to change. How much he buys into the concept of less central planning is anybody's guess, hopefully he recognizes the limits of that approach.

Interesting times. We have a lot of Chinese engineers working at our facilities on joint programs. They are exposed to the west on a daily basis, they recognize their own shortcomings. Word is getting around back there about how the rest of the world tolerates differences of opinion from the 'company line'. In summation, there is far more opposition to the Chicoms than most Americans know. How strident that opposition gets and how soon it becomes public is the question.

Agree about the “moving” parts.

But the time it will take in such a huge country where folks are 100% dependent on the central gov’t, who keeps and holds all the cards is still a couple to several generations away.

Therefore, the threats are not and will not be abated one iota.
The “game” is still on. Winner take all.