(01-26-2020 10:34 AM)Scoochpooch1 Wrote:  

(12-06-2018 01:50 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(12-06-2018 01:20 PM)domer1978 Wrote:  

(12-06-2018 01:15 PM)loki_the_bubba Wrote:  https://247sports.com/college/oklahoma/A...ssion=true

They're quoting FLug? Oh my goodness how the news media has fallen.

Actually it's worse than that. They are quoting Flug who is quoting his fictitious excuse for making up crap to drive his twitter feed hits, BTM (Big Ten Man). ESPN knew that the LHN wasn't a great venture when they created it. It was just a vehicle to keep UT in the ESPN fold through turbulent times which is why the 15 million a year extortion is paid.

Texas has the most successful business model in college sports and it is largely predicated on playing as many games as possible (home and away) inside the state of Texas so that their alums can see them as often as possible. It's worked marvelously for them and it's not changing. If they ever move anywhere it will be to a place that accommodates that business model. That isn't the Big 10.

There is such a detachment from reality in Fluguar's claims that it boggles the mind. Oklahoma would be the worst academically rated school in the Big 10 overnight surpassing Nebraska and it wouldn't even be close.

The reality here is twofold:
1. Every conference would love to have Texas and probably Oklahoma, but want them without their other state school baggage.
2. The Big 10 just lost Urban at their top football school, just whiffed on their second CFP in a row, and interest heading into bowl season is tepid to poor for the Big 10 as a whole. They have some good stories going on with some individual schools like Purdue, Northwestern, etc. But my point is Fluguar's traffic on his twitter feed was lousy. So he uses his fictitious creation BTM to tell everyone what they want to hear. And in the absence of real news he gets a boost.

There isn't going to be a bunch of real news leaks heading into the 2022-3 time period. The networks don't want leaks because they don't want the FAANG corporations getting into their game early and if ESPN and FOX can create a reason for contract re-negotiations (like additions to the Big 10, SEC, and ACC) they can re-calculate values, sign contract extensions, and lock up product before the main contracts expire.

The SEC's T1 contract with CBS is up in 2024-5. The Big 10's six year deal with FOX is up in 2023. The PAC's contract expires in 2024. The ACC is sewed up until 2037. And the Big 12's contract expires in 2024. Until then nothing will be spoken of.

It looks like if there is movement it will again come out of the Big 12, although the PAC is experiencing carriage and profitability issues. But then that might just make them more of a player. I have no doubts that everyone will make plays for Texas and Oklahoma and I know back door discussions have been going on for years now with both of those schools. Part of it is due diligence (the schools finding their relative value to others) and part of it is just in case talks. But even if they are inclined to move (which they may not be) they will by their GOR and conference rules have to give a 2 year notice before doing so and it will have to come appropriately toward the end of their GOR. So around 2022 if something is going to happen FOX and ESPN will have laid out their offers via the conferences and it will all stay totally under wraps because of NDA's with the conferences involved, the stipulations in the GOR's and the Networks' caution over tortuous interference suits. So there is no way in hell that some jock sniffer in the Minnesota athletic world is going to spill the beans to an ex football player who plays his role as the next Dude of West Virginia and indeed debates the Dude to drive interest.

Fluguar is the internet equivalent of professional wrestling. Sometimes he goes solo, sometimes he screams into the camera talking about made up stories, and sometimes he tag teams with the Dude of West Virginia.

I might watch if the two of them hit each other with chairs and spurted fake blood!

I'm sure this won't help matters:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com...index.html

It doesn't affect any important numbers because the ones that matter are with Equity in Athletics and they come from tax records. Boren was apparently responsible for a lot of less than transparent or intentionally fudged things at OU in addition to covering up his own transgressions and personal issues.

IN the end there are 3 schools that move the needle for the Big 10 and or SEC. Texas with the top revenue producing athletic department in most years and with an economic impact to its region estimated at 1.2 billion. Notre Dame with an economic impact estimated over .95 billion and Oklahoma with one estimated at .87 billion. All three exceed the attendance averages of the SEC and Big 10 and all are top 10 in athletic revenue.

When you get to media payout ranges in the mid 60 million range which will be the minimal range for the new SEC contract and which will be likely the range of the Big 10 earnings after they renew their contracts, then there simply aren't many schools you can add and make money.

The question for Big 10 expansion and SEC expansion is really just one. If you only add one of those three schools which schools should you consider for a travel companion if one is needed?

To answer that question you have to know your conference averages for Total Revenue, economic impact estimations by the WSJ, and attendance in addition to your stated parameters. For the Big 10 the stated parameters are AAU membership, state land grant schools preferred, contiguity preferred, and must be profitable. For the SEC the stated parameters are must be profitable, having a profile that fits with the SEC culturally, contiguity preferred, AAU preferred.

Well to figure the profitability of a pair of schools you average the factors they share between them and see if their average meets or exceeds your conferences average. Texas is strong enough to carry most anyone in the top 35 or so as a travel companion. Notre Dame and Oklahoma are only a little bit more restricted as to potential travel mates.

What's not really there for either the SEC or Big 10 is a stand alone addition from any of he ACC full member schools. One of those would truly need to be paired with one of the three remaining brands. This is why Kansas gets so much attention. Texas and Oklahoma are the likeliest to consider a move and if either did Kansas offers the best possible companion for them. The Jayhawks hoops covers low valuation numbers for their football, they are AAU, contiguous to both conferences, and would be a new market add. But they aren't the best by much where the Big 12 schools are considered. Out of the ACC Clemson, Florida State and Virginia Tech have the best numbers and none of them bring impact numbers exceeding .3 billion.