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(03-06-2019 02:14 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  

(03-06-2019 02:09 PM)OldenburgCat Wrote:  

(03-06-2019 10:42 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Final Four teams on average since 2002 finish:
15.77 in adjusted defense, 20.172 in adjusted offense, 8.69 in overall team efficiency... 180.22 in tempo.

57 of the 68 final four teams since 2002 were top 25 in kenpom adjusted defense (84%)
48 of 68 final four teams since 2002 were top 25 in adjusted offense (71%)
41 of 68 were top 25 in both adjusted offense and adjusted defense (60%)

16 of the last 17 National Champions were top 25 in both adjusted offense and adjusted defense. (94%)
The lone outlier was 2014 Connecticut which finished 10th in adjusted defense, but 39th in adjusted offense.

Let's talk about final four outliers. I would consider the true outliers to be teams that have an adjust efficiency outside of the top 40 in either offense or defense. By that definition there have been 14 outliers out of the 68 final four teams. (20.5%)

5 of those 14 had a defensive efficiency outside the top 40, with 2003 Marquette being the worst defensive final four team at 109 (of course they had wade). Only one of these has occurred since 2012, that would be Kansas last year which had a defensive efficiency of 47 (offense of 5).

9 of those 14 had an offensive efficiency outside the top 40 with 2012 Louisville being the lowest at 112. Recently we've seen Loyola get there with an offensive efficiency of 63 (defense was 17), South Carolina with an offensive efficiency of 91 (defense was 3) and Syracuse with an offense of 50 (defense was 18).

Mark, are you a bettor?

He tells everyone on the board he's a practicing lawyer. I'm beginning to have my doubts. I'll bet he works for a big time insurance company as a risk assessor.