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(02-14-2019 09:03 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(02-14-2019 07:41 AM)OKIcat Wrote:  

(02-14-2019 06:53 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(02-13-2019 09:55 PM)ucbrownsfan Wrote:  The ESPN win probability is as amusing (and useless) as the local five day weather forecast. Both are changed moment to moment with reckless abandon.

Umm... it's supposed to change moment to moment...that's what a probability tree is

Exactly. I find that people aren't very good at understanding probability.

I understand the validity of predictive modelling and its value in many endeavors. I just find it amusing that people would focus their attention, moment to moment, on that graphic on the ESPN website rather than watching the game.

Of course some of that is generational as I look at the student section on many telecasts and a large contingent are more focused on their phones than the live action.

Intuitively, most would have agreed that Duke had about a .2% chance of winning down by more than 20 points in the second half. And in most cases, the team up by 20 at that point is nearly a lock to win. I guess I don't find much value in their dial to discern that. I'd rather watch the live action as Fran Dunphy knocks that water bottle on the court and it changes the outcome. It's just a game, after all.

I think you overstate the idea that people focus their attention on moment to moment predictive modeling over the actual game. I don't think I've ever sought out predictive, minute by minute, modeling during a game, but I find it interesting after the fact. you don't have to make a choice between understanding what the predictive modeling is saying and paying full attention to the minute by minute action of a a game.
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bearcatmark--good take, we agree on that. I do have firsthand experience with some half my age who do pay attention minute by minute. It's their choice, but for me, putting the phone down for 2-3 hours to enjoy a basketball or football game is paramount. But, consider the source here--just a Boomer's point of view.