Tom in Lazybrook
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I Root For: So Alabama, GWU
Location: Houston
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RE: The end of Canada
OMG, I just watched that.
1) Wild Rose is NOT a seccesionist party! And the United Conservatives are even less of one
2) A large reason why Alberta's population is growing is because of immigration from other countries (and they have higher birth rates) and that Albetra's overheated economy draws young economic migrants from other parts of Canada. The migrants would be scared of an independent or US Alberta and the the migrants from within Canada aren't that likely to want to secede from the country they grew up in and leave their birthplaces behind.
3) Regarding Keystone XL. Keystone XL is a major issue for Alberta. But there are proposals, that are not being blocked by Ottawa to build a pipeline to the Atlantic Coast of Canada for export. The reason why this isn't as much of an issue right now as you might think is that Albertan tar sand heavy crude is REALLY EXPENSIVE to extract and even with Keystone, much of it is uneconomic at current levels. Alberta's other big export, natural gas, is somewhat geographically blocked in, but its subject to the same glut that exists throughout the North American natural gas pipeline system. In other words, joining the USA wouldn't do as much as he thinks it would. Also, remember that since the market for oil and natgas is finite, that any AB gains in market share would come at the expense of American ones. Obama's opposition to Keystone wasn't just environmental, but also a desire to protect American producers.
4) Alberta will continue to butt heads with Ottawa over subsidy issues, just like California and NY sometimes do over their subsidies to Washington.
5) If you polled Texans and Albertans, you'd probably find more Texans telling a pollster, I'd like to be independent...but in reality they aren't serious. Polls have shown that even on a lark, less than 25 percent of Albertans will say 'lets go indy'.
6) The analyst in the video makes the not-credible assumption that economic projects will straight line outward. No, AB isnt going to have their subsidy increase to 20k a year per capita. Probably because AB isn't necessarily going to have extraordinary returns forever. What will happen is that the subsidy will likely be phased out
7) The last Quebec indpendence vote was over a generation ago. The PQ of today is firmly Canadian and they're even more linked into Canada now then they were then. Quebec isn't going anywhere.
In short, its an interesting scenario, but its rather doubtful that his ideas will actually come to fruition. I question if he really understands Canada, the long term trends in oil and gas prices, the breakdown of the demographics among Alberta's young population (and their loyalties), the current political situation in Quebec, and used a dubious tactic of assuming that economic trends will continue as a straight line, or that Quebec will bail as soon as the subsidies are removed.
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11-15-2018 06:26 PM |
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